GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5722, which is a very misleading number. The GBP has no support and no reason to be trading at such levels, except that the US dollar weakened so over the past few days, that all of its trading partners have been able to reap the benefit.

This week the UK GDP disappointed markets and pushed the UK deep into recessionary territory, upsetting the Chancellor and the Prime Minister.

Yesterday after ECB President Draghi vowed to save the euro, the euro gained momentum pushing the greenback downwards.

Today, the negative GDP print in the US also pulled the USD downward and the forecast of monetary stimulus this coming week from the Fed has again weakened the USD.

In London, everyone is at the Olympics so no one cares about FX at the moment, they are all chasing other metals.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2%

 

1.2% 

 

3.6% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.43

 

1.25 

 

1.15 

   

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.20% 

 

0.30% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

2.0% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 30

30th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.8%

-0.6%

 

7:00

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

 

1.3B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

 

42

 

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

-29

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

   

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 30  09:10  Italy  

Jul 30  10:00  Belgium

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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