GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 4, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5675 as we wind down the day. US markets will have light volume on Tuesday afternoon and the markets are closed on Wednesday.

Sterling is close to flat, despite the release of an under 50 construction PMI report as markets look to Thursday’s BoE meeting.  Expectations are for a £50bn increase to the BoE’s asset purchase program, to £375bn.  BoE Governor King, along with MPC members Miles and Posen, had voted for a £50bn increase at the previous meeting; however a majority of the MPC voted to maintain the size of the asset purchase program given uncertainty surrounding the Greek election outcome from mid-June.  Weak domestic data over the past month (including yesterday’s sub-50 PMI) have generated additional dovish comments from members of the previous majority, increasing the likelihood of easing this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Releases actual v. forecast July 3, 2012 ( today was almost void of eco data )

Jul. 03

 

AUD

 

 

 

Building Approvals (MoM) 

27.3%

 

5.1% 

 

-7.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.50%

 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

8:00

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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