GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 6, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 05, 2012 18:11 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD fell to 1.5527 and is trading flat following the BoE’s decision to increase the size of its asset purchase program by £50bn, to £375bn, as expected. Rates remain unchanged at 0.5%, and details of the voting will only be released with the minutes on July 18th. In the statement the MPC noted a particularly fragile economy, with limited output growth and slowing exports combined with Euro-area risks weighing heavily on the outlook. However, the decision to ease had been widely disseminated by speeches from many members of the BoE’s MPC, including some of whom had abstained from voting for easing at the previous meeting.

The ECB also made news today, dropping its key lending rate by .25 to the lowest in history, followed by pessimistic statements on the EU economy the euro plunged to trade below 1.24

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 05

AUD

Trade Balance

-0.28B

-0.50B

-0.03B

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

1.0%

-0.2%

0.4%

EUR

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction

6.430%

6.044%

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM)

0.6%

0.2%

-1.4%

GBP

Interest Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

GBP

BOE QE Total

375B

375B

325B

EUR

Interest Rate Decision

0.75%

0.75%

1.00%

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

176K

105K

136K

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

374K

385K

388K

EUR

ECB Press Conference

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3306K

3300K

3302K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

52.1

53.0

53.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jul 6	7:00	CHF	Foreign Currency Reserves		303.8B
	7:15	CHF	CPI m/m	-0.3%	0.0%
	8:30	GBP	PPI Input m/m	-2.1%	-2.5%
	10:00	EUR	German Industrial Production m/m	0.3%	-2.2%
	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	92K	69K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.2%	8.2%

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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