GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 9, 2012, Forecast

Posted July 06, 2012 14:59 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is holding close to the 1.55 price level, trading at this time at 1.5505. The GBP hardly moved after yesterday’s BoE announcements of additional asset purchases. The USD has been picking up strength in the markets and has momentum in its favor at this time.

Negative eco data in the UK kept pressure on the pound, with PPI input monthly and annually reported in well below forecast. The UK has been a mixed bag of eco data, but mostly poor, with some bright spots now and then, leaving their economy suspect.

The US surprisingly kept strength and momentum today, after a poor jobs report, markets had expected jobs to report under forecast, which supports the theory that the US economy has stalled. Traders are interpreting this to mean Fed action and hopefully big action.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Reports for July 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jul. 06

UAH

Ukrainian CPI (MoM)

CHF

CPI (MoM)

-0.3%

-0.3%

0.0%

GBP

PPI Input (MoM)

-2.2%

-2.1%

-2.6%

GBP

PPI Input (YoY)

-2.3%

-2.1%

0.1%

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM)

1.6%

0.1%

-2.1%

BRL

Brazilian CPI (YoY)

4.92%

4.95%

4.99%

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)

0.3%

0.2%

CAD

Building Permits (MoM)

7.4%

1.0%

-4.4%

CAD

Employment Change

7.3K

5.0K

7.7K

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls

80K

90K

77K

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.2%

7.0%

7.3%

USD

Average Weekly Hours

34.5

34.4

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls

84K

102K

105K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Jul 9	8:00	EUR	Sentix Investor Confidence	-28.9
	23:01	GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y	1.3%
	23:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-16%
Jul 10	6:45	EUR	French Industrial Production m/m	1.5%
	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	-0.7%
	8:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-10.1B
	14:00	GBP	NIESR GDP Estimate	0.1%
Jul 11	12:30	USD	Trade Balance	-50.1B
Jul 11	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-4.3M
Jul 12	9:00	EUR	Industrial Production m/m	-0.8%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims
	12:30	USD	Import Prices m/m	-1.0%
	18:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-124.6B
	7:15	CHF	PPI m/m	-0.2%
Jul 13	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	-1.0%
Jul 13	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	73.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jul 09 15:30 Italy

Jul 10 00:30 Japan

Jul 10 08:30 Holland

Jul 10 09:10 Greece

Jul 10 09:30 UK

Jul 10 14:30 UK

Jul 10 15:30 Italy

Jul 10 17:00 US

Jul 11 09:30 Germany

Jul 11 09:30 Swiss

Jul 11 17:00 US

Jul 12 09:10 Italy

Jul 12 09:30 UK

Jul 12 15:00 US

Jul 12 17:00 US

Jul 13 09:10 Italy

Jul 13 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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