GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis July 9, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is holding close to the 1.55 price level, trading at this time at 1.5505. The GBP hardly moved after yesterday’s BoE announcements of additional asset purchases. The USD has been picking up strength in the markets and has momentum in its favor at this time.

Negative eco data in the UK kept pressure on the pound, with PPI input monthly and annually reported in well below forecast. The UK has been a mixed bag of eco data, but mostly poor, with some bright spots now and then, leaving their economy suspect.

The US surprisingly kept strength and momentum today, after a poor jobs report, markets had expected jobs to report under forecast, which supports the theory that the US economy has stalled. Traders are interpreting this to mean Fed action and hopefully big action.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Reports for July 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 06

 

UAH

 

 

 

Ukrainian CPI (MoM) 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-2.2%

 

-2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-2.3%

 

-2.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-2.1% 

   

 

 

BRL

 

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

4.92%

 

4.95% 

 

4.99% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.4%

 

1.0% 

 

-4.4% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

7.3K

 

5.0K 

 

7.7K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

80K

 

90K 

 

77K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.2%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.2%

 

7.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

84K

 

102K 

 

105K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 9

8:00

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-28.9

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.3%

23:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance

-16%

Jul 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

1.5%

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-10.1B

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

0.1%

Jul 11

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-50.1B

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-4.3M

Jul 12

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

-0.8%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-1.0%

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-124.6B

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.2%

Jul 13

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

73.2

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 09  15:30  Italy

Jul 10  00:30  Japan

Jul 10  08:30  Holland

Jul 10  09:10  Greece 

Jul 10  09:30  UK

Jul 10  14:30  UK

Jul 10  15:30  Italy

Jul 10  17:00  US

Jul 11  09:30  Germany

Jul 11  09:30  Swiss

Jul 11  17:00  US

Jul 12  09:10  Italy

Jul 12  09:30  UK

Jul 12  15:00  US

Jul 12  17:00  US

Jul 13  09:10  Italy

Jul 13  10:00  Belgium

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