GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis June 20, 2012, Forecast

Posted June 19, 2012 16:49 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD gained on the USD at 1.5734 as the USD lost momentum. The Dollar Index fell to 81.61 as investors began to position themselves in front of tomorrows FOMC statement. There was a slew of data out in the UK, Core CPI and CPI all reporting well under forecast. The German ZEW as well as the European ZEW economic sentiment came in well below forecast, but markets ignored these reports and were more concerned with news flow and the upcoming FOMC decisions.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data June 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun. 19

AUD

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

GBP

Core CPI (YoY)

2.2%

2.3%

2.1%

GBP

CPI (YoY)

2.8%

3.0%

GBP

CPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.1%

0.6%

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-16.9

4.0

10.8

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

-20.1

-5.7

-2.4

USD

Building Permits

0.780M

0.728M

0.723M

USD

Housing Starts

0.708M

0.720M

0.744M

CAD

Wholesale Sales (MoM)

1.5%

1.0%

0.3%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jun 20	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m		0.2%
	8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-13.7K
	8:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes	0-0-9	0-0-9
	8:30	GBP	Unemployment Rate		8.2%
	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations		-4.0
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories		-0.2M
	16:30	USD	FOMC Statement
	16:30	USD	Federal Funds Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%
	18:00	USD	FOMC Economic Projections
	18:15	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Jun 21	6:00	CHF	Trade Balance		1.33B
	7:00	EUR	French Flash Manufacturing PMI		44.7
	7:00	EUR	French Flash Services PMI		45.1
	7:15	CHF	Industrial Production q/q		7.9%
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Manufacturing PMI		45.2
	7:30	EUR	German Flash Services PMI		51.8
	8:00	EUR	Current Account		9.1B
	8:00	EUR	Flash Manufacturing PMI		45.1
	8:00	EUR	Flash Services PMI		46.7
	8:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m		-2.3%
	10:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Order Expectations		-17
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims		386K
	13:00	USD	Flash Manufacturing PMI		54.0
	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales		4.62M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-5.8
Jun 22	8:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate		106.9
	All Day	EUR	ECOFIN Meetings
	13:00	EUR	Belgium NBB Business Climate		-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Jun 20 09:10 Sweden

Jun 20 09:30 Germany

Jun 20 10:00 Norway

Jun 21 08:30 Spain

Jun 21 08:50 France

Jun 21 09:30 UK

Jun 21 09:50 France

Jun 21 15:00 US

Jun 21 17:00 US

Jun 22 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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