GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis June 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.5743 adding 0.0018. which is surprising, as there were two jobs reports released in the UK today, Average Earning Index which rose above forecast, which was positive, but the report is fairly minor, but it is combined with the Claimant Count, which shows the change in unemployment claims, markets were expecting a decline of 3k but reports showed a rise of over 8k. This was a large negative.

The strength in the GBP was more due to a decline in the USD as investors expect the FOMC to introduce additional monetary programs in their decision later today.

The USD fell against most of its trading partners in mid day US trading ahead of the release.

Otherwise investors was of a more positive sentiment as the New Democracy announced that it was able to form a coalition government.

Spain continued to worry the markets, with rising borrowing costs.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for June 20, 2012 actual. v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

   

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.66T

 

-0.36T 

 

-0.51T 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.4%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

8.1K

 

-3.0K 

 

-12.8K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 21

6:00

CHF

Trade Balance

 

1.33B

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

44.7

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

 

45.1

7:15

CHF

Industrial Production q/q

 

7.9%

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.2

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

 

51.8

8:00

EUR

Current Account

 

9.1B

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

45.1

8:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

 

46.7

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

 

-17

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

 

54.0

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

All Day

EUR

ECOFIN Meetings

   

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

 

-11.2

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Jun 21  08:30  Spain

Jun 21  08:50  France

Jun 21  09:30  UK

Jun 21  09:50  France

Jun 21  15:00  US

Jun 21  17:00  US

Jun 22  15:30  Italy

Jun 25  09:10  Norway

Jun 25  09:30  Germany

Jun 25  10:00  Belgium

Jun 25  15:30  Italy

Jun 26  00:30  Japan

Jun 26  08:30  Holland

Jun 26  08:30  Spain

Jun 26  09:10  Italy

Jun 26  09:30  UK

Jun 26  14:30  UK

Jun 26  17:00  US

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