GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis June 26, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD fell along with most of the USD trading partners today. The pair is at 1.5549. In a day void of eco data on both sides of the Atlantic, the markets have been about news flow, which has mostly come from the EU with the highlights being Spain, Greece and Italy.

Spain, submitted their formal bailout request, although the amount is open for discussion and Spain said it will be resolved before the July 9th EU meeting, it seems that Spain is trying to camouflage a true bailout with a request for a bank bailout.

Greece has publicly released their demands to remain in the EU, including additional funding to the tune of 20billion euros and longer terms and a change in austerity measures. This is going to be difficult for Germany to swallow.

Italy continues to keep to the shadows as their bond yields increase, but Monti, continues to deny the need for financial assistance.

Back in the UK the ongoing BoE conversation, over the last few weeks, the market has re‐priced the risk of a third round of QE in the UK, highlighted again by a dovish interview in the FT with MPC member Miles today. Accordingly, though QE is likely to limit near‐term upside it is unlikely to cause further GBP selling

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 26

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

-18.8B

13:00

USD

S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y

-2.6%

14:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

Jun 27

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.2%

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

32.4K

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

21

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jun 28

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

0K

8:30

GBP

Current Account

-8.5B

8:30

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

8:30

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

Jun 29

29th-4th

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.6%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.81

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.5%

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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