GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis June 27, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD added small gains today, to move up to 1.5591. Unfortunately the overall outlook for the pair is fairly bearish; at least David Cameron was able to remove the UK from the EU disasters facing the markets.

Despite weaker public finance data and bearish comments from BoE Governor King regarding his outlook for the global economy.   The UK’s deficit, which was wider than expected as a result of reduced tax receipts, adds to existing sovereign credit risk given that the UK remains on outlook negative from two of the three major rating agencies (albeit with a AAA rating from all). 

Meanwhile, Governor King has expressed concern over the widening breadth of the economic slowdown, given deceleration in Asia and deterioration in US growth.  King voted for additional asset purchases at the most recent MPC meeting in June, and it is becoming increasingly likely that a majority will succeed in expanding the asset purchase program at the next meeting in July. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jun 27

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.2%

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

32.4K

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

21

12:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.2%

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

-5.5%

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jun 28

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

0K

8:30

GBP

Current Account

-8.5B

8:30

GBP

BOE Credit Conditions Survey

 

8:30

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

12:30

USD

Final GDP q/q

1.9%

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

Jun 29

29th-4th

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

0.6%

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.6%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

0.81

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.5%

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

12:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index m/m

0.1%

12:30

USD

Personal Spending m/m

0.3%

13:45

USD

Chicago PMI

52.7

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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