GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis May 30, 2012, Forecast

Posted May 29, 2012 16:37 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is holding firm with little activity today, trading at 1.5681. The UK calendar is thin with only the CBI distributive trades survey scheduled for release which reported well above forecast, but it is a minor report with little market affects. . Recently UK eco data were far from inspiring. Another negative surprise might fuel speculation on the need for more QE from the BoE in the near future.

Second and third tier data is all that faces US markets today as more of the emphasis will be placed upon catching up to events of the past few days. US consumer confidence disappointed reporting well under forecast.

The Greek polls knocked Syriza back to second place and boosted the pro bail-out parties, but they are not materially different than what the polls were saying prior to the May 6^th election that led to a divided outcome. US markets also have fresh if albeit modest steps toward stimulus by China to factor against hard landing concerns.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for May 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

May 29

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.6%

4.5%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

5.8%

6.3%

10.3%

AUD

HIA New Home Sales (MoM)

6.9%

-9.4%

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey

-7

-6

EUR

German CPI (MoM)

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

EUR

German CPI (YoY)

1.9%

2.0%

2.1%

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

64.9

70.0

68.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency		Previous
May 30	7:00	CHF	KOF Economic Barometer	0.40
	8:00	EUR	M3 Money Supply y/y	3.2%
	8:30	GBP	Net Lending to Individuals m/m	1.4B
	14:00	USD	Pending Home Sales m/m	4.1%
	23:01	GBP	GfK Consumer Confidence	-31
May 31	5:45	CHF	GDP q/q	0.1%
	31st-3rd	EUR	German Retail Sales m/m	0.8%
	6:45	EUR	French Consumer Spending m/m	-2.9%
	7:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change	19K
	9:00	EUR	CPI Flash Estimate y/y	2.6%
	12:15	USD	ADP Non-Farm Employment Change	119K
	12:30	USD	Prelim GDP q/q	2.2%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	370K
	13:45	USD	Chicago PMI	56.2
	15:00	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	0.9M
Jun 1	TBD	GBP	Halifax HPI m/m
	7:15	CHF	Retail Sales y/y	4.2%
	7:30	CHF	SVME PMI	46.9
	7:45	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	43.8
	8:30	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	50.5
	9:00	EUR	Unemployment Rate	10.9%
	12:30	USD	Non-Farm Employment Change	115K
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate	8.1%
	12:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index m/m	0.0%
	12:30	USD	Personal Spending m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	ISM Manufacturing PMI	0.3%
	14:00	USD	S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y	54.8

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

May 30 09:10 Italy

May 30 09:10 Sweden

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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