GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis November 30, 2012, Forecast

Posted November 29, 2012 15:36 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6037 adding 23pips. Today’s CBI Trades Survey printed well above expectations and above previous months, helping to support the Great British Pound. Weaker consumer lending and house price data weigh on the currency. The softer lending data present a challenge to BoE policymakers, as they had sought to move away from QE and foster growth via the Funding for Lending Scheme announced in July. However, a weakened growth outlook appears to have resuscitated policymakers’ support for asset purchases, which were recognized as having helped mitigate economic headwinds in testimony earlier this week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data November 29, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Nov. 29

00:00

 

AUD

 

  

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

3.4%

 

 

 

-3.7% 

 

  

 

00:30

 

AUD

 

  

 

Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) 

2.8%

 

2.0% 

 

3.4% 

 

  

 

06:45

 

CHF

 

  

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.1% 

 

  

 

07:00

 

GBP

 

  

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.6% 

 

  

 

08:55

 

EUR

 

  

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.9%

 

6.9% 

 

6.9% 

 

  

 

08:55

 

EUR

 

  

 

German Unemployment Change 

5K

 

15K 

 

19K 

    

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

  

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

33

 

18 

 

30 

 

  

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

  

 

Current Account 

-18.9B

 

-19.0B 

 

-18.4B 

    

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

393K

 

390K 

 

416K 

    

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

GDP (QoQ) 

2.7%

 

2.8% 

 

2.0% 

 

  

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3287K

 

3323K 

 

3357K 

    

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Nov. 30

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.60

1.67

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Nov 29  10:10  Italy   BTP/CCTeu auction

Nov 29  18:00  US  Usd 29bn 7Y Notes

Dec 03  10:30  Germany  Eur 3.0bn new Jun 2013 (6M) Bubill

Dec 04  01:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Dec 04  10:30  Belgium  Auctions Mar 2013 (3M) & May 2013 (6M) T-bills

Dec 04  15:30  UK  Details 1.75% 2022 conventional Gilt auction on Dec 11 &

Dec 05  09:30  Spain  Bono auction

Dec 05  10:30  Germany  Eur 4.0bn Dec 2014 Schatz

Dec 05  11:00  Norway  Details bond auction on Dec 10

Dec 05  15:30  Sweden  Details nominal bond auction on Dec 12

Dec 06  01:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Dec 06  09:50  France  OAT auction

Dec 06  16:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Dec 11, 10Y Notes on Dec 12 & 30Y

Dec 07  16:30  Italy   Details BOT auction on Dec 12

 


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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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