GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 28, 2012 15:52 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6152 falling below the 1.62 price, as the USD gained momentum earlier in the day. Sterling is weaker, down 0.3%, paring back some of yesterday’s gain as it continues to oscillate around 1.62. Consumer confidence data suggest a challenging environment, and domestic drivers will likely lend support to GBP given expectations for an improvement to PMI’s (mfg, construction) as the BoE is expected to maintain the size of its QE program, leaving relative monetary policy as a support for FX. The recent increase in the BoE’s asset purchases extends to November, providing policymakers’ time with which to assess the outlook. This week’s tone from MPC member Fisher was constructive, given expectations for an elevated inflation profile and improved economic data, reducing the likelihood of policy easing in the near term

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 28

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.2%

4.3%

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.5%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.3%

-0.5%

-1.0%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

1.8%

-0.2%

-0.8%

EUR

French GDP (QoQ)

0.0%

0.0%

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM)

0.4%

-0.1%

0.4%

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators

1.67

1.57

1.59

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.7%

2.4%

2.6%

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

0.1%

0.1%

CAD

GDP (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

USD

Personal Spending (MoM)

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

USD

Chicago PMI

49.7

53.0

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

78.3

79.0

79.2

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.0%	3.2%
	08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	47.0	46.7
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.8	49.6

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 01 10:00 Norway

Oct 02 09:15 Austria

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium

Oct 02 09:30 UK

Oct 02 14:30 UK

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden

Oct 03 10:00 Norway

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles