GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6152 falling below the 1.62 price, as the USD gained momentum earlier in the day. Sterling is weaker, down 0.3%, paring back some of yesterday’s gain as it continues to oscillate around 1.62.  Consumer confidence data suggest a challenging environment, and domestic drivers will likely lend support to GBP given expectations for an improvement to PMI’s (mfg, construction) as the BoE is expected to maintain the size of its QE program, leaving relative monetary policy as a support for FX.  The recent increase in the BoE’s asset purchases extends to November, providing policymakers’ time with which to assess the outlook.  This week’s tone from MPC member Fisher was constructive, given expectations for an elevated inflation profile and improved economic data, reducing the likelihood of policy easing in the near term

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 28

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.2%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.4%

 

-0.3% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

1.8%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.67

 

1.57 

 

1.59 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.4% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

49.7

 

53.0 

 

53.0 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.3

 

79.0 

 

79.2 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 01

08:15

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY) 

5.0%

3.2%

 

08:30

CHF

SVME PMI 

47.0

46.7

 

15:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing Index 

49.8

49.6

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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