GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 10, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 10, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 10, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD slide a few pips on disappointing eco data. The pound is trading at 1.6013 at a one-month low after data showed UK manufacturing output fell more than expected and a bigger-than-forecast trade deficit.

Today several eco reports hit the boards in the UK, including a better than expected RICS House Price Balance while Industrial Production came in at forecast of -0.5, but manufacturing production dropped well below forecast along with the UK trade balance.

There was little in the way of eco data in the US or most of Europe today, but the US dollar gained momentum ahead of earning season which begins after markets close today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 09

 

GBP

 

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-15%

 

-20% 

 

-18% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.72T

 

0.52T 

 

0.34T 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Business Confidence 

0

 

 

 

-3 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

2.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

-1.1%

 

-0.6% 

 

3.1% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Trade Balance 

-9.8B

 

-8.5B 

 

-7.3B 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

-1.1% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Housing Starts 

220.2K

 

208.0K 

 

225.3K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

NIESR GDP Estimate 

0.8%

 

 

 

0.1% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 11

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

 

0.7%

Oct. 12 

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.5%

0.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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