GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 10, 2012 16:03 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD claimed back a few points today to trade at 1.6023, as sovereign investors bought the pound after three straight days of losses had pushed it to a one-month low against the dollar. However, gains were likely to be fleeting as a weak UK economy and the prospect of even more fiscal tightening will pile pressure on the Bank of England to print more cash under its quantitative easing programme next month. That will undermine the pound in the near term, traders said.

The fiscal and monetary fundamentals suggest the pound will stay under pressure even if there is an economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund slashed its forecasts this week to show the UK economy will shrink overall this year. Economists’ forecasts for the UK have worsened steadily this year and the third quarter is expected to show only very modest growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 10	KRW	South Korean Unemployment Rate	3.1%	3.2%	3.1%
	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	1.00%		1.60%
	KRW	South Korean M2 Money supply	9.20%		9.00%
	EUR	German WPI (MoM)	1.3%	0.5%	1.1%
	JPY	Machine Tool Orders (YoY)	-3.0%		-2.7%
	EUR	Finnish Industry Output (MoM)	-1.40%		2.00%
	EUR	French Industrial Production (MoM)	1.5%	-0.2%	0.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 11	07:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	0.0%	0.0%
	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.7%
	13:30	USD	Import Price Index (MoM)	0.7%	0.7%
	13:30	USD	Trade Balance	-44.0B	-42.0B
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	367K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3275K	3281K
	19:00	USD	Federal Budget Balance	-4.0B	-191.0B

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

Oct 11 09:30 UK

Oct 11 15:00 US

Oct 11 17:00 US

Oct 12 09:30 Germany

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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