GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD claimed back a few points today to trade at 1.6023, as sovereign investors bought the pound after three straight days of losses had pushed it to a one-month low against the dollar. However, gains were likely to be fleeting as a weak UK economy and the prospect of even more fiscal tightening will pile pressure on the Bank of England to print more cash under its quantitative easing programme next month. That will undermine the pound in the near term, traders said.

 The fiscal and monetary fundamentals suggest the pound will stay under pressure even if there is an economic recovery. The International Monetary Fund slashed its forecasts this week to show the UK economy will shrink overall this year.  Economists’ forecasts for the UK have worsened steadily this year and the third quarter is expected to show only very modest growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 10

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

 

 

1.60% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean M2 Money supply 

9.20%

 

 

 

9.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German WPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 

-3.0%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Finnish Industry Output (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

 

 

2.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 11

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0% 

0.0% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0% 

2.0% 

 

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.0B 

-42.0B 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3275K 

3281K 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-4.0B 

-191.0B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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