GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed today to trade at 1.6041 adding 0.0035. Concerns about a weak UK economy and the prospect of the Bank of England opting to extend its quantitative easing program in November were expected to keep sterling under pressure against the dollar and cap any gains versus the euro.

BoE policymaker Martin Weale told the Daily Mail newspaper he was concerned another round of QE may not be “compatible” with the Bank of England’s inflation target but he also warned Britain was at risk of a ‘triple-dip’ recession.

The US today, surprised markets with a better than forecast unemployment report, supporting the print of the nonfarm report last week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 11

 

JPY

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K 

-9.1K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

5.3% 

5.1% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

2.75% 

3.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0% 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-18.1B

 

-15.6B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

6.6%

6.4% 

6.0% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

0.4%

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7% 

1.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.3B

-2.0B 

-2.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B 

-42.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K 

369K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K 

3288K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 12

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.2% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.8% 

1.7% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

77.9 

78.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

 

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