GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 20:31 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6069 fairly flat on the day, holding close to a one-month low against the dollar and seen vulnerable due to the possibility of more monetary easing from the Bank of England.

Traders were wary that data later in the week – including inflation, jobs and retail sales figures, as well as BoE minutes – could highlight a weak UK economy and add to the risk of the BoE opting for more asset-buying quantitative easing next month. QE is usually negative for the pound as it increases the supply of the currency.

But there was little in the way of UK data or events on Monday and analysts said this was likely to leave the pound tracking movements in the euro and the dollar for now. Across the Atlantic US retail sales skyrocketed. With a week of positive data, it is unlikely that the US Fed will have to add any additional stimulus, helping to support the greenback.

Uncertainty over when Spain may ask for a bailout, a prerequisite for the European Central Bank to start buying its bonds, continued to weigh on the euro and other perceived riskier currencies, including sterling. A breakthrough on Spain looked unlikely at a summit of European leaders this week, with euro zone officials telling Reuters that an aid request from Spain may come in November.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.8%	1.4%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-16.0	-18.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus		1.5%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-15.0K
Oct. 18	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.1%	2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles