GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed today, to trade at 1.6117 adding 0.0046. In the UK, consumer price inflation in September rose 0.4 percent from a month ago, in line with expectations, but slowing from a 0.5 percent rise in August. For the year, inflation rose 2.2 percent in September, lower than the 2.5 percent annual rise seen in August and also in line with forecasts.

Today’s data was so in line with expectations we didn’t see too much reaction in cable even though it makes more QE in November a bit more likely.

The rate of inflation remains above the Bank of England’s 2.0% target, but the Bank of England will not be obliged to write to the Chancellor of the Exchequer, as the inflation rate is less than a percentage point above or below its target. Core CPI, which excludes food, energy, alcohol, and tobacco costs held steady at a seasonally adjusted 2.1% in September, in line with expectations.
The retail price index rose 2.6% last month, matching market expectations, after increasing 2.9% August. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 16

01:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.1%

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

 

2.2%

 

2.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.1%

 

1.9% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

-0.8%

 

1.1% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-11.5

 

-15.0

 

-18.2 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-1.4

 

-1.1

 

-3.8 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

1.6%

 

1.5% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5%

 

0.6% 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

6.90B

 

8.72B

 

6.67B 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

1.50%

 

1.00%

 

-0.80% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

1.9%

 

1.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0%

 

1.9% 

 

14:00

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

90.0B

 

45.3B

 

67.2B 

 

14:15

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

-1.4% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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