GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 19, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6129 almost flat to yesterday. With the USD fluctuating between small gains and losses the market has had very little reaction to UK retail sales which reported well over forecast. All eyes are on the EU Summit beginning today and after relief that Chinese data was at forecast or better markets are a bit relaxed. Most traders were worried that the data would miss forecast.

Strategists said improving data raised the possibility of the economy recovering in the third quarter of 2012 after three consecutive quarters of contraction. We have had a couple of modest data surprises that argue the underlying trend might be stronger than people expected. The strength of the UK economy was only one factor affecting sterling, however, with expectations of more monetary easing from the Bank of England in November and developments in the euro zone also having an impact.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 18

 

AUD

 

 

NAB Quarterly Business Confidence 

-2.00

 

 

 

-2.00 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.5%

 

20.2% 

 

20.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.4%

 

7.4% 

 

7.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.0% 

 

8.9% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

14.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.1% 

 

2.5% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish 10-Year Obligacion Auction 

5.458%

 

 

 

5.666% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

388K

 

365K 

 

342K 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.7% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3252K

 

3275K 

 

3281K 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 19 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.73M 

4.82M 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 21 10:30 Portugal 

Oct 22 09:10 Norway 

Oct 23 08:30 Spain 

Oct 23 14:30 UK 

Oct 23 17:00 US 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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