GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 25, 2012 17:24 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6115 on a strong GBP read today, coming in well above forecast. Sterling received a much-needed boost on Thursday when the British government’s official GDP estimate for Q3 showed a quarterly increase of 1.0% – well ahead of analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% print. The figure showed that the UK economy, which had spent the first half of 2012 in a deep slumber, grew by its largest quarterly amount since 2007 during the three months to the end of September. The uptick in activity was attributed to an increased spending by British citizens and an influx of foreign visitors thanks to the London 2012 Olympic Games and the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations. Whether Britain’s fragile economy can move forward and use the momentum of these one-off events to build sustained growth into 2013 remains to be seen.

A strong US dollar limited gains today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 25	HUF	Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY)	-2.40%	-2.20%	-2.60%
	SEK	Swedish Interest Rate Decision	1.25%	1.25%	1.25%
	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	1.0%	0.6%	-0.4%
	GBP	GDP (YoY)	0.0%	-0.5%	-0.5%
	BRL	Brazilian Unemployment Rate	5.4%	5.3%	5.3%
	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	2.0%	0.8%	-2.1%
	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	9.9%	7.1%	-13.1%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	369K	370K	392K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3254K	3255K	3256K
	MXN	Mexican Trade Balance	0.234B	-1.318B	-0.979B
	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	0.3%	2.1%	-2.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 26	07:00	EUR	GfK German Consumer Climate	5.9	5.9
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.63	1.67
	13:30	USD	GDP (QoQ)	1.9%	1.3%
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	83.0	83.1

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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