GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 26, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6115 on a strong GBP read today, coming in well above forecast. Sterling received a much-needed boost on Thursday when the British government’s official GDP estimate for Q3 showed a quarterly increase of 1.0% – well ahead of analysts’ expectations of a 0.6% print. The figure showed that the UK economy, which had spent the first half of 2012 in a deep slumber, grew by its largest quarterly amount since 2007 during the three months to the end of September. The uptick in activity was attributed to an increased spending by British citizens and an influx of foreign visitors thanks to the London 2012 Olympic Games and the Queen’s Jubilee celebrations. Whether Britain’s fragile economy can move forward and use the momentum of these one-off events to build sustained growth into 2013 remains to be seen. 

A strong US dollar limited gains today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 25

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian Retail Sales (YoY) 

-2.40%

 

-2.20% 

 

-2.60% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish Interest Rate Decision 

1.25%

 

1.25% 

 

1.25% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.6% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.0%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

2.0%

 

0.8% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

9.9%

 

7.1% 

 

-13.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

369K

 

370K 

 

392K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3254K

 

3255K 

 

3256K 

 

 

MXN

 

 

Mexican Trade Balance 

0.234B

 

-1.318B 

 

-0.979B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

2.1% 

 

-2.6% 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 26 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

5.9 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.63 

1.67 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.9% 

1.3% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.0 

83.1 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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