GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 03, 2012 16:01 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continues to weaken trading at 1.6074 down a bit, from yesterday’s close, trading at the lower end of a two week range as the UK services PMI disappoints (52.2 vs. 53.0 exp.) while driving little movement. Thursday’s BoE policy announcement is not likely to have much of an impact on GBP given that expectations are for both rates and the size of the asset purchase program to remain unchanged. As such, both the ECB meeting and Friday’s US jobs data are the key events for the remainder of the week.

Otherwise markets are fairly quiet, waiting for tomorrow’s ECB statements and Friday’s nonfarm payroll data. Traders seem to be a bit tired out from weeks of central bank action and are waiting to see some results.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 03	AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM)	-5.3%		-5.6%
	AUD	Trade Balance	-2.03B	-0.70B	-1.53B
	TRY	Turkish CPI (MoM)	1.03%	1.10%	0.56%
	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	PLN	Polish Interest Rate Decision	4.75%	0.00%	4.75%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index		53.2	53.7

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 04	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	359K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3271K	3271K
Oct. 05	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-0.5%	0.5%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	110K	96K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.4	34.4
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	125K	103K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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