GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD continues to weaken trading at 1.6074 down a bit, from yesterday’s close, trading at the lower end of a two week range as the UK services PMI disappoints (52.2 vs. 53.0 exp.) while driving little movement.  Thursday’s BoE policy announcement is not likely to have much of an impact on GBP given that expectations are for both rates and the size of the asset purchase program to remain unchanged.  As such, both the ECB meeting and Friday’s US jobs data are the key events for the remainder of the week.

Otherwise markets are fairly quiet, waiting for tomorrow’s ECB statements and Friday’s nonfarm payroll data. Traders seem to be a bit tired out from weeks of central bank action and are waiting to see some results.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 03

 

AUD

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

 

 

-5.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

 

-0.70B 

 

-1.53B 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

1.03%

 

1.10% 

 

0.56% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

52.2

 

53.1 

 

53.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Interest Rate Decision 

4.75%

 

0.00% 

 

4.75% 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

 

143K 

 

189K 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

 

 

53.2 

 

53.7 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 04

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

359K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K 

3271K 

 Oct. 05

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-0.5% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

110K 

96K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4 

34.4 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

125K 

103K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country   

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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