GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6203 breaking above the psychological price at 1.62. While GBP remains below recent highs near 1.6300, yesterday’s retracement helped it move back toward levels of congestion around 1.6200.  GBP is likely to trade in line with broader market sentiment in the absence of domestic data, as markets look to US employment. Industrial production data and trade figures are set for release early next week, and the medium term focus remains on the economic outlook driving BoE policymakers’ tone ahead of the coming expiry of QE.

The much expected nonfarm payroll report gave a conflicted print with new jobs hitting expectations but unemployment dropping to 7.8% when an increase to 8.2% was expected. Very confusing to say the least.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 05

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-1.3%

 

-0.5% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

BRL

 

 

Brazilian CPI (YoY) 

5.28%

 

5.27% 

 

5.24% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

7.9%

 

-1.0% 

 

-2.8% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

52.1K

 

10.0K 

 

34.3K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

114K

 

113K 

 

142K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.8%

 

8.2% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.4%

 

7.0% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.4 

 

34.4 

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

104K

 

130K 

 

97K 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 08 

08:15

CHF

CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

1.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 08 09:10 Norway 

Oct 08 15:30 Italy  

Oct 09 08:30 Holland 

Oct 09 09:30 UK 

Oct 09 14:30 UK 

Oct 09 17:00 US 

Oct 10 09:10 Italy  

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 10 09:30 Germany 

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss 

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 10 17:00 US 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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