GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 05, 2012 15:49 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis October 8, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6203 breaking above the psychological price at 1.62. While GBP remains below recent highs near 1.6300, yesterday’s retracement helped it move back toward levels of congestion around 1.6200. GBP is likely to trade in line with broader market sentiment in the absence of domestic data, as markets look to US employment. Industrial production data and trade figures are set for release early next week, and the medium term focus remains on the economic outlook driving BoE policymakers’ tone ahead of the coming expiry of QE.

The much expected nonfarm payroll report gave a conflicted print with new jobs hitting expectations but unemployment dropping to 7.8% when an increase to 8.2% was expected. Very confusing to say the least.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 05	JPY	Interest Rate Decision	0.10%	0.10%	0.10%
	JPY	BoJ Press Conference
	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	BRL	Brazilian CPI (YoY)	5.28%	5.27%	5.24%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	CAD	Building Permits (MoM)	7.9%	-1.0%	-2.8%
	CAD	Employment Change	52.1K	10.0K	34.3K
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Unemployment Rate	7.8%	8.2%	8.1%
	CAD	Unemployment Rate	7.4%	7.0%	7.3%
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.6%	1.3%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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