GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD climbed on a day of positive data to trade at 1.5984. Will it break the 1.60 price this week?
The GBP reached a new multi‐month high in early European session. Data was stronger than expected with both industrial and manufacturing production in July was above expectations, increasing 2.9% y/y and 3.2%y/y respectively. In addition there was evidence of upward pressure on both input and output prices.
The US dollar declined once the nonfarm jobs data was released, supporting the view that the FOMC would be forced to act at the September 13th meeting. Mr. Bernanke all but promised that he would take proper action to deal with the jobs market, which was his priority. Today’s report has made this clear.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 07 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Trade Balance |
-0.56B |
|
-0.30B |
|
-0.23B |
||
|
|
|
CHF |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
2.9% |
|
1.5% |
|
-2.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Manufacturing Production (MoM) |
3.2% |
|
2.0% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (MoM) |
2.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
0.4% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
PPI Input (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
1.2% |
|
-2.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Industrial Production (YoY) |
-0.8% |
|
-2.8% |
|
-3.8% |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Industrial Production (MoM) |
1.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
-0.4% |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Building Permits (MoM) |
-2.3% |
|
-2.0% |
|
-2.5% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Employment Change |
34.3K |
|
10.0K |
|
-30.4K |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Labor Productivity (QoQ) |
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Nonfarm Payrolls |
96K |
|
125K |
|
141K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
8.1% |
|
8.3% |
|
8.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Unemployment Rate |
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
7.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Average Weekly Hours |
34.4 |
|
34.5 |
|
34.4 |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Private Nonfarm Payrolls |
103K |
|
138K |
|
162K |
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 09 |
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (YoY) |
|
2.0% |
|
1.8% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese PPI (YoY) |
|
-3.3% |
|
-2.9% |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese CPI (MoM) |
|
0.5% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) |
|
20.4% |
|
20.4% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) |
|
9.1% |
|
9.2% |
|
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) |
|
13.2% |
|
13.1% |
||
|
Sep. 10 |
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
02:00 |
|
CNY |
|
|
Chinese Trade Balance |
|
19.80B |
|
25.10B |
|
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Home Loans (MoM) |
|
|
|
1.3% |
|
Government Bond Auction
Date Time Country
Sep 10 09:30 Germany
Sep 10 15:30 Italy
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
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