GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD remains in positive territory trading at 1.6087 on the back of the weakened USD. There was little in the way of eco news to support the GBP, but positive sentiment in Europe on good news from the German courts buoyed the euro which softened the USD allowing the crosses to benefit.

GBP has broken to a new four‐month high, gaining 0.3% since yesterday’s NA close and 3.7% on a year‐to‐date basis. GBP strength today was on the back of better than expected job gains (employment 3m/3m was up 236k versus expectations of 169k). Comments from BoE member Miles were supportive of QE but not additional rate cuts had a limited impact

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 12

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.2% 

   

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.60%

 

 

 

-2.50% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.1%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

 

1.6% 

 

1.8% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-15.0K

 

0.5K 

 

-13.6K 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sept 13 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

-155.0B 

 

-69.6B 

 

 

 

19:15

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date and Country

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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