GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
The GBP/USD remains in positive territory trading at 1.6087 on the back of the weakened USD. There was little in the way of eco news to support the GBP, but positive sentiment in Europe on good news from the German courts buoyed the euro which softened the USD allowing the crosses to benefit.
GBP has broken to a new four‐month high, gaining 0.3% since yesterday’s NA close and 3.7% on a year‐to‐date basis. GBP strength today was on the back of better than expected job gains (employment 3m/3m was up 236k versus expectations of 169k). Comments from BoE member Miles were supportive of QE but not additional rate cuts had a limited impact
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sep. 12 |
|
KRW |
|
|
South Korean Unemployment Rate |
3.1% |
|
3.2% |
|
3.1% |
|
|
|
|
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.4% |
|
0.2% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Westpac Consumer Sentiment |
1.60% |
|
|
|
-2.50% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
0.5% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
|
|
INR |
|
|
Indian Industrial Production (YoY) |
0.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
-1.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.3% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German CPI (YoY) |
2.1% |
|
2.0% |
|
2.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Average Earnings Index +Bonus |
1.5% |
|
1.6% |
|
1.8% |
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
Claimant Count Change |
-15.0K |
|
0.5K |
|
-13.6K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
0.6% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.6% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Import Price Index (MoM) |
0.7% |
|
1.4% |
|
-0.7% |
Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Sept 13 |
09:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ECB Monthly Report |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.2% |
|
0.4% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
1.1% |
|
0.3% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
370K |
|
365K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3318K |
|
3322K |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
1.4% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.5% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Interest Rate Decision |
0.25% |
|
0.25% |
|
|
|
|
17:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
FOMC Statement |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
19:00 |
|
USD |
|
|
Federal Budget Balance |
-155.0B |
|
-69.6B |
|
|
|
|
19:15 |
|
USD |
|
|
Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks |
|
|
|
Government Bond Auctions
Date and Country
Sep 11 00:30 Japan
Sep 11 08:30 Holland
Sep 11 09:10 Greece
Sep 11 09:30 UK
Sep 11 14:30 UK
Sep 11 17:00 US
Sep 12 09:10 Italy
Sep 12 09:10 Sweden
Sep 12 09:30 Germany
Sep 12 09:30 Swiss
Sep 12 14:30 Sweden
Sep 12 17:00 US
Sep 13 00:30 Japan
Sep 13 09:10 Italy
Sep 13 09:30 UK
Sep 13 15:00 US
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