GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD broke above the 1.61 price level and is trading at 1.6107. There was no eco data in the UK today and little data has been released in the US and nothing of consequence in Europe or Asia, so this means that the currency rise is simply on the back of the weakness in the USD. Traders are preparing ahead of Mr. Bernanke’s statement which is due in just a few hours from now.

The market place has a slight bias that the Fed will announce QE3, or some sort of fresh monetary stimulus package, on Thursday. But even if the Fed does not make a stimulus move on Thursday, the majority of the market place believes the U.S. central bank will act to ease monetary policy in the coming weeks. No significant action at all by the Fed Thursday would disappoint many commodity and stock market bulls and could put downside price pressure on many markets, including the precious metals.

In other news, the Italian government had a successful long-term bond offering, with most agreeing the debt sale went well due to the European Union’s recent proclamations to support governments’ debt sales by having the European Central Bank sop up any excess debt. Also, Greece’s unemployment rate rose to a record high of 23.6% in the second quarter.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

 

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 13

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

2.75% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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