GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 17, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 14, 2012 15:27 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.6211 well into the 1.62 range for most of the day, after the US Federal Reserve began its new QE3 program. Mr. Bernanke, pull out the big guns yesterday and introduced a complete and comprehensive plan to stimulate growth and jobs in the US. The new plan, was actually more than markets were expecting and it took trader a bit of time to understand the breathe and depth of Mr. Bernanke’s programs.

The immediate reaction was cool and then like a shot in the dark markets grasp how extensive the program was and the US dollar weakened and the crosses soared.

Sterling is strong, having rallied a further 0.5% since yesterday’s close and almost 6% since mid‐July. Many GBP watchers feel like the current rally in GBP has gone too far, considering the fundamental backdrop in the UK

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 14	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.0%	-1.2%	-1.2%
	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.6%	2.6%	2.6%
	EUR	Employment Change (QoQ)	0.0%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)	1.5%	1.7%	1.7%
	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	0.8%	0.6%	0.8%
	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.6%	0.5%	0.0%
	CAD	Manufacturing Sales (MoM)	-1.50%	1.00%	-0.80%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.9%	0.7%	0.6%
	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%
	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	1.9%	2.0%	2.1%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 18	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)		2.6%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)		0.1%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-25.5	-25.5

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 17 09:10 Slovakia

Sep 17 10:00 Norway

Sep 18 08:30 Spain

Sep 18 09:10 Greece

Sep 18 09:30 Belgium

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden

Sep 19 09:30 Germany

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal

Sep 19 10:00 Norway

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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