GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is exchanging at 1.6208 down just a few pips as the USD gained a bit of momentum in today’s European session as jubilation over the Feds move last week died down a bit.

Although the pound is weak, down 0.2% from yesterday’s close following the release of the BoE’s MPC minutes.  Policymakers voted unanimously (9-0), in favor of maintaining rates at 0.5% and QE at £375bn.   The minutes’ tone was dovish, given the bias towards further easing, and one policymaker even advocated expanding asset purchases at the September meeting.  However, in terms of the employment outlook it appears that policymakers are somewhat more constructive, and with regards to inflation they are likely to revise their expectations for the path of decline given the recent increase in the prices of oil and other commodities.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 19

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.803M

 

0.796M 

 

0.811M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.750M

 

0.765M 

 

0.733M 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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