GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 19, 2012 15:33 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is exchanging at 1.6208 down just a few pips as the USD gained a bit of momentum in today’s European session as jubilation over the Feds move last week died down a bit.

Although the pound is weak, down 0.2% from yesterday’s close following the release of the BoE’s MPC minutes. Policymakers voted unanimously (9-0), in favor of maintaining rates at 0.5% and QE at £375bn. The minutes’ tone was dovish, given the bias towards further easing, and one policymaker even advocated expanding asset purchases at the September meeting. However, in terms of the employment outlook it appears that policymakers are somewhat more constructive, and with regards to inflation they are likely to revise their expectations for the path of decline given the recent increase in the prices of oil and other commodities.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 19

JPY

Interest Rate Decision

0.10%

0.10%

USD

Building Permits

0.803M

0.796M

0.811M

USD

Housing Starts

0.750M

0.765M

0.733M

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 20	07:58	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	46.4	46.0
	08:28	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	45.3	44.7
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	-0.4%	0.3%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.7%	2.8%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-15	-21

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 20 08:30 Spain

Sep 20 08:50 France

Sep 20 09:30 UK

Sep 20 09:50 France

Sep 20 15:00 US

Sep 20 17:00 US

Sep 21 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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