GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD is trading at 1.62 as sterling remains strong and positive after UK retail sales numbers surprised traders as month over month data came in above forecast and annual numbers were right on expectations. Traders were worried that after the Jubilee and the Olympics that consumer would just stop spending. Also the CBI Industrial Trends reported above forecast give some added strenght to the pound.

Even with the USD climbing against most of the crosses on positive housing data and a surprising Philly Fed index, the GBP remained in the 1.62 price level.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

 

-0.37T 

 

-0.37T 

  

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

 

 

47.60 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.6

 

46.4 

 

46.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.3

 

45.3 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

45.4 

 

45.1 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

2.3% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-15 

 

-21 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

 

375K 

 

385K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

 

3300K 

 

3304K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

 

-4.0 

 

-7.1 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

There are no top tier eco data releases due in Europe or the US on the 21st.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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