GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 26, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD was trading on the positive note at 1200GMT after BBA Mortgage Approvals climbed well above forecast as investors hoped this was the beginnings of a recovery for the UK housing market. At 1200GMT Sterling was exchanging at 1.6239

Constructive headlines are likely driving some of the relative outperformance vs. EUR in the absence of domestic data, as EURGBP falls to early September lows below 0.7950.  MPC member Fisher has spoken about the BoE’s funding for lending scheme (FLS), suggesting that it will help mitigate some of the contraction in lending that would have been expected to occur in its absence.  The FLS will provide £61bn in treasury bills to UK lenders in order to boost the supply of credit while helping to reduce funding costs.

The data released today, shows the efforts of the BoE are reaching the public.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 25

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Financial Stability Review 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

 

5.9 

 

5.9 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.40%

 

12.30% 

 

12.30% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

30.5K

 

28.6K 

 

28.8K 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 26

01:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

01:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.1%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

5

-3

Sep. 27 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

6.8%

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K

9K

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.4B

-11.2B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 Sep. 28 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.55

1.57

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 26 17:00 US 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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