GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6222 as the final revision for second-quarter GDP showed the contraction was shallower than initially thought, the CBI Distributive Trades figures for September were above forecasts and a Bank of England credit conditions survey was pretty positive. The UK will be hoping that Friday’s Index of Services report will put the cherry on a week of generally better than expected economic data.

In the US, disappointing eco data weakened the greenback after both durable goods and pending home sales printed below forecast, while unemployment figures had a positive ring.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 27

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.70% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

10K 

 

11K 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

-1.5% 

 

-1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-20.8B

 

-12.4B 

 

-15.4B 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.24%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

 

-5.0% 

 

3.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

 

378K 

 

385K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

 

3285K 

 

3275K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 28

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

1.57

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

52.9

53.0

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.9

79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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