GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 27, 2012 21:59 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to 1.6222 as the final revision for second-quarter GDP showed the contraction was shallower than initially thought, the CBI Distributive Trades figures for September were above forecasts and a Bank of England credit conditions survey was pretty positive. The UK will be hoping that Friday’s Index of Services report will put the cherry on a week of generally better than expected economic data.

In the US, disappointing eco data weakened the greenback after both durable goods and pending home sales printed below forecast, while unemployment figures had a positive ring.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 27

DKK

Danish Unemployment Rate

4.70%

4.70%

EUR

German Unemployment Rate

6.8%

6.8%

EUR

German Unemployment Change

10K

11K

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ)

0.9%

-1.5%

GBP

Current Account

-20.8B

-12.4B

-15.4B

GBP

GDP (QoQ)

-0.4%

-0.5%

GBP

GDP (YoY)

-0.5%

-0.5%

EUR

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction

5.24%

5.82%

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-1.6%

0.3%

-1.3%

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

-13.2%

-5.0%

3.3%

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

359K

378K

385K

USD

GDP (QoQ)

1.3%

1.7%

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3271K

3285K

3275K

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM)

-2.6%

-0.7%

2.6%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 28	06:30	EUR	French GDP (QoQ)	0.0%	0.0%
	07:45	EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	-0.1%	0.1%
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.57	1.57
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.4%	2.6%
	13:30	USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM)	0.1%	0.0%
	13:30	USD	Personal Spending (MoM)	0.5%	0.4%
	14:45	USD	Chicago PMI	52.9	53.0
	14:55	USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment	78.9	79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 01 10:00 Norway

Oct 02 09:15 Austria

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium

Oct 02 09:30 UK

Oct 02 14:30 UK

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden

Oct 03 10:00 Norway

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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