GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 4, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 03, 2012 14:24 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD traded at 1.5887, adding 21 pips in a quiet day, with the US closed for holiday. The GBP was able to capitalize on a surprise release showing that UK PMI was printing higher than forecast, while the rest of Europe disappointed markets falling below forecast.

There has not been much activity due to the holiday and the late responses to Mr. Bernanke’s presentation on Friday afternoon.

Markets are now awaiting the September 6th meetings of the ECB and the BoE. The ECB has been the center of attention since Mr. Draghi promised to save the euro several weeks ago, now markets are expecting to see some results.

In the UK the BoE has been under pressure to help resolve the economic recession and to introduce new policies to help foster growth and employment.

The 6th should be an eventful day, but until then markets will ignore most eco data, but we can expect Spain, Italy and Greece to keep to the headlines, although Merkel seems to have been doing a lot of hand holding over the past week.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Actual versus Forecast Economic Releases. US and CAD markets are closed for a holiday

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 03

KRW

South Korean CPI (YoY)

1.2%

1.4%

1.5%

KRW

South Korean CPI (MoM)

0.4%

0.5%

-0.2%

JPY

Capital Spending

7.70%

8.90%

3.30%

AUD

Company Gross Operating Profits (QoQ)

-0.7%

1.0%

-3.7%

AUD

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.8%

0.2%

1.2%

CNY

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI

47.60

47.80

INR

Indian Trade Balance

-15.5B

-8.8B

-10.3B

CHF

SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan speaks

TRY

Turkish CPI (MoM)

0.56%

0.25%

-0.23%

CHF

Retail Sales (YoY)

3.2%

4.3%

3.3%

CHF

SVME PMI

46.7

49.0

48.6

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

43.60

45.00

44.30

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI

46.0

46.2

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI

44.7

45.1

EUR

Manufacturing PMI

45.1

45.3

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

49.5

46.2

45.2

Economic Highlights for the upcoming week… Tiers 3 keep your eyes on these

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 04	05:30	AUD	Interest Rate Decision	3.50%	3.50%
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	50.0	49.8
Sep. 05	02:30	AUD	GDP (QoQ)	0.8%	1.3%
	14:00	CAD	Interest Rate Decision	1.00%	1.00%
Sep. 06	02:30	AUD	Employment Change	5.0K	14.0K
	02:30	AUD	Unemployment Rate	5.3%	5.2%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
Sep. 07	15:00	CAD	Ivey PMI	58.0	62.8

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction

Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction

Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction

Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction

Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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