GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 05, 2012 15:33 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD held above the 1.59 level to trade at 1.5907. Sterling is flat from yesterday’s close and gaining on the crosses as BoE policymakers begin their two day meeting. No change is expected when the MPC announces its decision Thursday, as QE is currently underway and as recent data releases have surprised to the upside. The UK services PMI has risen to 53.7, surpassing both expectations (51.2) and the previous month’s 51.0 reading, suggesting that the economy’s largest sector is experiencing a pickup in growth.

With the big ECB statement due tomorrow, currency markets are staying in tight ranges, although the US dollar weakened on poor ISM data released yesterday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 05

AUD

GDP (QoQ)

0.6%

0.7%

1.4%

CHF

CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.1%

-0.5%

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM)

-0.2%

-0.2%

0.1%

EUR

German 10-Year Bund Auction

1.420%

1.420%

USD

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ)

2.2%

1.8%

1.6%

USD

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ)

1.5%

1.5%

1.7%

CAD

Interest Rate Decision

1.00%

1.00%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 06	10:00	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%
	11:00	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	0.2%	-1.7%
	12:00	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%
	12:00	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B
	12:45	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%
	13:15	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	140K	163K
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	374K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3315K	3316K
	15:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	52.5	52.6
Sep. 07	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-24%	-24%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.5%	-2.5%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	2.0%	-2.9%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.7%	1.3%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	1.2%	-2.4%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-2.8%	-4.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-0.9%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	124K	163K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.5
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	142K	172K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 06 00:30 Japan

Sep 06 08:30 Spain

Sep 06 08:50 France

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden

Sep 06 15:00 US

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany

Sep 10 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 00:30 Japan

Sep 11 08:30 Holland

Sep 11 09:10 Greece

Sep 11 09:30 UK

Sep 11 14:30 UK

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Italy

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 Germany

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden

Sep 12 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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