GBP/USD Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 06, 2012 15:56 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD climbed to trade at 1.5926 today. The BoE provided no surprise to markets leaving interest rates unchanged at 0.5% and its asset purchase target at £375bn. The decision was not a surprise since the current round of £50bn asset purchases is not scheduled to be completed until early November and there has been no update on the FLS. As is customary there was no detailed press release. One of the interesting components of the minutes will be if there has been a shift of balance with Ian McCafferty (dovish) replacing Alan Posen. In line with forecast, GBP has rallied over 4% since the end of May. Looking out to year‐end we expect only modest gains against the USD.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 06

KRW

South Korean GDP (QoQ)

0.3%

0.4%

AUD

Employment Change

-8.8K

5.0K

11.7K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

JPY

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.7%

EUR

GDP (QoQ)

-0.2%

-0.2%

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM)

0.5%

0.2%

-1.6%

GBP

Interest Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

GBP

BOE QE Total

375B

375B

EUR

Interest Rate Decision

0.75%

0.75%

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

201K

140K

173K

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

365K

370K

377K

EUR

ECB Press Conference

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3322K

3315K

3328K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

53.7

52.5

52.6

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 07	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-24%	-24%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.5%	-2.5%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	2.0%	-2.9%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.7%	1.3%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	1.2%	-2.4%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-2.8%	-4.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-0.9%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	124K	163K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.5
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	142K	172K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany

Sep 10 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 00:30 Japan

Sep 11 08:30 Holland

Sep 11 09:10 Greece

Sep 11 09:30 UK

Sep 11 14:30 UK

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Italy

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 Germany

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden

Sep 12 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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