GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

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Published: Apr 28, 2016, 08:50 UTC

The GBP/USD gained 56 point to 1.4599 as the dollar weakened after the FOMC statement gave no indications of future Fed moves. Sterling has risen to its

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – April 29, 2016

The GBP/USD gained 56 point to 1.4599 as the dollar weakened after the FOMC statement gave no indications of future Fed moves. Sterling has risen to its highest level against the dollar since the start of the EU referendum campaign, as polls show support for the Remain camp growing.

After Barack Obama’s intervention in the Brexit debate on Friday, betting odds for the UK to stay in the EU jumped from 65 per cent to 73 per cent, a move reflected in polls conducted this week that indicated “stronger momentum” for Remain ahead of the 23 June referendum.

While reaction to this week’s polls has also seen sterling rebound strongly against the euro, specialist bank Investec warned that investors “needed to be careful in poll interpretation”, reports the Irish Independent.

According to Reuters sterling rose against a weaker dollar on Thursday, advancing towards 12-week highs against a U.S. currency pegged back by expectations that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to raise interest rates any time soon.

Still, gains in the pound are likely to be capped after a fresh YouGov poll for the Times showed that those campaigning for Britain to exit the European Union in a referendum in June were gaining ground.

The online survey taken on Monday and Tuesday showed support for the “Out” campaign had risen 3 percentage points to 42 percent since a similar survey on April 12-14, while support for the “In” campaign had risen 1 percentage point to 41 percent.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
NZD	Interest Rate Decision	2.25%	2.25%	2.25%
JPY	Household Spending (YoY) (Mar)	-5.3%	-4.2%	1.2%
JPY	Household Spending (MoM) (Mar)	0.5%	-0.3%	1.7%
JPY	Jobs/applications ratio (Mar)	1.30	1.28	1.28
JPY	National Core CPI (YoY) (Mar)	-0.3%	-0.2%	0.0%
JPY	Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Apr)	-0.3%	-0.3%	-0.3%
JPY	Industrial Production (MoM) (Mar)	3.6%	2.9%	-5.2%
JPY	Retail Sales (YoY) (Mar)	-1.1%	-1.5%	0.4%
JPY	BoJ Monetary Policy Statement
JPY	Interest Rate Decision	-0.10%	-0.10%	-0.10%
JPY	BoJ Outlook Report (YoY)
GBP	Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Apr)	4.9%	5.0%	5.7%
JPY	BoJ Press Conference
EUR	German Unemployment Change (Apr)	-16K	4K	0K
EUR	German Unemployment Rate (Apr)	6.2%	6.2%	6.2%
EUR	German CPI (MoM) (Apr)		-0.2%	0.8%
USD	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.7%	1.4%
USD	Initial Jobless Claims		260K	247K

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, April 29, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	Japan – Showa Day
NZD	Building Consents (MoM) (Mar)			10.8%
NZD	ANZ Business Confidence (Apr)			3.2
AUD	PPI (QoQ) (Q1)		0.2%	0.3%
AUD	Private Sector Credit (MoM) (Mar)		0.6%	0.6%
EUR	German Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)		0.3%	-0.4%
EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		0.9%	1.0%
EUR	GDP (QoQ) (Q1)		0.4%	0.3%
EUR	Unemployment Rate (Mar)		10.3%	10.3%
GBP	BoE MPC Member Cunliffe Speaks
USD	Core PCE Price Index (MoM) (Mar)		0.1%	0.1%
USD	Personal Spending (MoM) (Mar)		0.2%	0.1%
CAD	GDP (MoM) (Feb)		-0.1%	0.6%
CAD	RMPI (MoM) (Mar)		3.7%	-2.6%
USD	Chicago PMI (Apr)		53.0	53.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Expectations		80.2	79.6
USD	Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Apr)		90.0	89.7
USD	Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count			343