GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 8, 2016

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Published: Feb 5, 2016, 13:05 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD tumbled 57 points to 1.4531 remaining above its level earlier this week but weaker as Mark Carney does

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 8, 2016

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD tumbled 57 points to 1.4531 remaining above its level earlier this week but weaker as Mark Carney does everything he can to weaken the currency. The GBP eased from a one-month high against the dollar on Friday, hurt by a poll that showed that those campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union had taken a 9-point lead, triggering renewed anxiety among investors.

The YouGov survey, taken in the two days after Prime Minister David Cameron set out his proposed changes for Britain’s relationship with the EU, represents the biggest lead for the ‘out’ campaign since the referendum wording was agreed last September.

The poll showed 45 percent of Britons would vote to leave the bloc compared with the 36 percent who want to remain. Nineteen percent said they did not know or would not vote. Markets and punters are betting that the referendum is likely to be held in June.

Goldman Sachs said on Thursday sterling could fall as much as 15 to 20 percent if Britain votes to leave the EU, because foreign investors could pull out and dry up the capital inflows needed to fund the current account deficit.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
AUD	Retail Sales (MoM) (Dec)		0.5%	0.4%
USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (Jan)		190K	292K
USD	Unemployment Rate (Jan)		5.0%	5.0%
CAD	Employment Change (Jan)		5.5K	22.8K
CAD	Ivey PMI (Jan)		50.0	49.9