GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

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Published: Feb 8, 2016, 12:34 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: The GBP/USD took a major hit today falling 95 points as Brexit becomes the headline event in the UK. The pound fell to

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – February 9, 2016

Analysis and Recommendations:

The GBP/USD took a major hit today falling 95 points as Brexit becomes the headline event in the UK. The pound fell to 1.4408. Sterling traded below a recent one-month high against the dollar on Monday, as uncertainty about Britain’s place in the European Union and diminishing rate hike prospects kept investors cautious.

Sterling was off the one-month high of $1.4672 it hit last Thursday after Bank of England chief Mark Carney quashed talk that interest rates could be cut in the coming months, with lower stocks also weighing on sentiment.

“There are still concerns about slowing economic momentum in the United Kingdom, while ongoing uncertainty over whether there will be a Brexit referendum to vote on UK membership of the EU should continue to haunt investors.”

A YouGov poll released late last week showed those campaigning for Britain to leave the European Union had taken a nine-point lead. The poll showed 45 percent of Britons would vote to leave the bloc compared with the 36 percent who want to remain.

Nineteen percent said they did not know or would not vote. Markets and punters are betting that the referendum is likely to be held in June.

Traders expect uncertainty stemming from the referendum to keep the pound choppy in the coming months and possibly force the central bank to keep rates lower for longer. Most economists think Brexit would hurt growth in the short-run — Citi predicts a 4 percent hit over three years.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
	New Zealand – Waitangi
JPY	Adjusted Current Account	1.64T		1.42T
JPY	Current Account n.s.a. (Dec)	0.96T	0.987T	1.144T

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
	China – Lunar New Year
AUD	HIA New Home Sales (MoM) (Dec)			-2.7%
GBP	BRC Retail Sales Monitor (YoY) (Jan)		0.4%	0.1%
AUD	NAB Business Confidence (Jan)			3
EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)		0.4%	-0.3%
EUR	German Trade Balance (Dec)		20.2B	19.7B
GBP	Trade Balance (Dec)		-10.35B	-10.64B
GBP	Trade Balance Non-EU (Dec)		-2.55B	-2.45B
USD	JOLTs Job Openings (Dec)		5.400M	5.431M