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GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 1, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Jun 30, 2016, 11:39 UTC

The GBP/USD is up 55 points paying little attention to lackluster current account data today. The pound is more reactive to headlines and comments

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – July 1, 2016

The GBP/USD is up 55 points paying little attention to lackluster current account data today. The pound is more reactive to headlines and comments regarding the Brexit outcome. It seems that nothing is going to actually happen for a long time as traders breathe a sigh of relief. The pound is trading at 1.3478 after the data releases.

The chief investment officer at Sun Life Global Investments said he is surprised at how quickly the markets have turned around but he thinks it will be short-lived. “What we’ll see is a rebound but then we’ll see markets come back down again,” said the analyst, adding that the negative effects from Britain’s vote and the consequences that flow from it will take time to be fully felt.

The implications can also mean more instability in the 19-country eurozone as other countries consider a similar move. “Brexit opens the door for other political parties in the eurozone to propose the same scenario,” he said. “It could cause more disruptions to the eurozone and hurt global confidence as well.”

Sterling climbed for a third day on Thursday, but traded in tight ranges as investors waited for new developments on Britain’s shock decision to leave the European Union, which sent the currency to a 31-year low.

The pound tumbled almost 8 percent last Friday, the steepest daily decline in the post-1973 floating-exchange-rate era, after the result of Britain’s referendum on EU membership stunned markets. Those losses continued into Monday, with sterling shedding another 3 percent and markets firmly in risk-off mode.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

gbpusd

Country Name Volatility Previous
Japan National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) 2 0.7
Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 2 -0.3
Japan National Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2 -0.3
Japan Unemployment Rate 2 3.2
Japan Jobs/applicants ratio 2 1.34
Australia AiG Performance of Mfg Index 2 51
Japan Overall Household Spending (YoY) 2 -0.4
Japan Tankan Non – Manufacturing Index 2 22
Japan Tankan Large All Industry Capex 2 -0.9
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Outlook 2 3
Japan Tankan Non – Manufacturing Outlook 2 17
Japan Tankan Large Manufacturing Index 2 6
China Non-manufacturing PMI 2 53.1
China NBS Manufacturing PMI 2 50.1
Canada RBC Manufacturing PMI 2 52.1
China Caixin Manufacturing PMI 2 49.2
Switzerland Real Retail Sales (YoY) 3 -1.9
Germany Markit Manufacturing PMI 2
Italy Unemployment 2 11.7
Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI 2
U.K. Markit Manufacturing PMI 2 50.1
Eurozone Unemployment Rate 2 10.2
U.S. Markit Manufacturing PMI 2
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI 3 51.3
U.S. ISM Prices Paid 3 63.5
U.S. Construction Spending (MoM) 2 -1.8
U.S. Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2 330

 

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