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GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 9, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: May 6, 2016, 11:59 UTC

The GBP/USD added 18 points as the greenback tumbled ahead of US jobs data while UK voters waited for the outcome of elections and the naming of a new

GBP/USD Fundamental Forecast – May 9, 2016

The GBP/USD added 18 points as the greenback tumbled ahead of US jobs data while UK voters waited for the outcome of elections and the naming of a new Mayor of London. The pound is trading at 1.4504. The U.S. dollar is heading towards the Friday morning release of the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report with a strong rally that was not slowed down by the lower than expected ADP private payrolls report and higher unemployment claims this week. The ADP non-farm employment change showed a 156,000 job gain, short by 50,000 of the forecast. Weekly unemployment claims rose to 274,000 coming in higher than the anticipated 261,000. While both data points do not spell disaster and in fact still show a strong employment trend the market anxiety on the NFP report has regained some of the attention that made it the biggest indicator in forex.

The Pound’s next notable movements may stem from the most unpredictable source of all – the ongoing UK local elections. Announcements of results are expected to be made over the course of tomorrow, Saturday and Sunday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Monday, May 9, 2016

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous
  GBP Halifax House Price Index (MoM)   0.1% 2.6%  
  GBP Halifax House Price Index (YoY)   9.6% 10.1%  

 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time       Country           Auction

May 09 17:20 Italy Announces details of bond auction

May 09 N/A Ireland Details of bond auction on May 12

May 10 11:30 Germany Holds I/L bond auction

May 11 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

May 11 11:30 Germany Eur 5bn Jun 2018 Schatz

May 12 11:10 Italy Holds bond auction

May 12 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on May 19

May 12 N/A Ireland Holds bond auction

 

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