GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 16-20, 2012, Forecast
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Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.
- The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
- High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher
Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:
The GBP/USD ended the week stronger then it opened, trading at 1.5576. The USD was exceptionally strong all week as markets remained in risk aversion mode, but now risk aversion was not just focused on the EU, but global growth was the stressor of the market place. With Chinese warning all week and GDP reporting on Friday at forecast, but forecast was way down, adjusted to 7.6% from the original expectation of 8.1%. Negative eco data from around the globe as been pointing towards a global slowdown.
|
Date |
Last |
Open |
High |
Low |
Change % |
|
Jul 13, 2012 |
1.5576 |
1.5425 |
1.5580 |
1.5415 |
0.99% |
|
Jul 12, 2012 |
1.5424 |
1.5509 |
1.5516 |
1.5394 |
-0.55% |
|
Jul 11, 2012 |
1.5509 |
1.5516 |
1.5578 |
1.5487 |
-0.05% |
|
Jul 10, 2012 |
1.5516 |
1.5528 |
1.5549 |
1.5478 |
-0.08% |
|
Jul 09, 2012 |
1.5528 |
1.5479 |
1.5534 |
1.5470 |
0.32% |
Markets were surprised earlier in the week when UK Manufacturing Production printed well above forecast, but markets wrote this off as a statistical one time fluke.
The USD finally lost some momentum at the end of the week as investors moved to more risk after Chinese data reports.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week of July 9 – 13 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD
|
Date |
Currency |
Event |
Actual |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 9 |
EUR |
Sentix Investor Confidence |
-29.6 |
-26.3 |
-28.9 |
|
GBP |
BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y |
1.4% |
1.3% |
||
|
GBP |
RICS House Price Balance |
-22% |
-15% |
-17% |
|
|
Jul 10 |
EUR |
French Industrial Production m/m |
-1.9% |
-0.9% |
1.4% |
|
EUR |
Italian Industrial Production m/m |
0.8% |
-0.3% |
-2.0% |
|
|
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
1.2% |
0.1% |
-0.8% |
|
|
GBP |
Trade Balance |
-8.4B |
-9.0B |
-9.7B |
|
|
GBP |
NIESR GDP Estimate |
-0.2% |
0.1% |
||
|
Jul 11 |
USD |
Trade Balance |
-48.7B |
-48.5B |
-50.6B |
|
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
-4.7M |
-1.3M |
-4.3M |
|
|
Jul 12 |
EUR |
Industrial Production m/m |
0.6% |
0.0% |
-1.1% |
|
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
350K |
376K |
376K |
|
|
USD |
Import Prices m/m |
-2.7% |
-1.5% |
-1.2% |
|
|
USD |
Federal Budget Balance |
-59.7B |
-91.7B |
-124.6B |
|
|
Jul 13 |
CHF |
PPI m/m |
-0.3% |
-0.2% |
-0.2% |
|
USD |
PPI m/m |
0.1% |
-0.5% |
-1.0% |
|
|
USD |
Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment |
72.0 |
73.5 |
73.2 |
Historical:
Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov 17, 2009.
Average: 1.5807 USD over this period
Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009.
Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Jul 16 |
7:15 |
CHF |
-7.5% |
8.8% |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.2% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
2.3 |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
0.4% |
|||
|
Jul 17 |
8:30 |
GBP |
2.8% |
||
|
9:00 |
EUR |
-16.9 |
|||
|
9:15 |
ALL |
G7 Meetings |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
-0.3% |
|||
|
13:00 |
USD |
25.6B |
|||
|
13:15 |
USD |
-0.1% |
|||
|
Jul 18 |
8:30 |
GBP |
8.1K |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
8.2% |
|||
|
9:00 |
CHF |
-43.4 |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.78M |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.71M |
|||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-4.7M |
|||
|
Jul 19 |
6:00 |
CHF |
2.48B |
||
|
8:00 |
EUR |
4.6B |
|||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
1.4% |
|||
|
12:30 |
USD |
||||
|
14:00 |
USD |
4.55M |
|||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-16.6 |
|||
|
Jul 20 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.3% |
||
|
8:30 |
GBP |
15.6B |
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