GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis July 2-6, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
  • High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD closed the quarter much higher than expected at 1.5703  as markets turned upside down on Friday, as EU Minister’s surprised traders by introducing a complete ready to act plan to secure the finances of its members. The new banking plan was unexpected and pushed the euro to a rise of 2 cents within minutes. The dollar immediately declined, and investors shifted to more risk, relieved that there was no a credible solution to dealing with the EU mounting debt problems.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 29, 2012

1.5703

1.5518

1.5715

1.5514

1.19%

Jun 28, 2012

1.5518

1.5569

1.5624

1.5486

-0.33%

Jun 27, 2012

1.5570

1.5634

1.5641

1.5546

-0.41%

Jun 26, 2012

1.5634

1.5565

1.5651

1.5564

0.44%

Jun 25, 2012

1.5565

1.5581

1.5591

1.5539

-0.11%

The dollar index fell below 82.00 and most of the greenbacks trading partners benefited immediately. Global markets soared. With commodities skyrocketing, Gold climbed close to 50.00 and crude oil added 7%.

This week brings us some interesting items; the US will be looking at ISM Manufacturing and the Non Farms Payroll report, while the UK eagerly awaits the BoE meeting. This prior week most eco data was ignored by the markets as the EU Summit and Spain and Italy were center stage. Market focus will now return to eco data and Greece.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthlyanalysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weeklyreports and we providedailyupdates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of June 25 – 29 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB and the Franc

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 26

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.8

5.7

5.7

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

15.6B

13.6B

-19.9B

Jun 27

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.1%

0.0%

-0.2%

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

30.2K

32.8K

32.1K

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

42

12

21

Jun 28

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

-0.6%

0.3%

0.2%

EUR

German Unemployment Change

7K

4K

1K

GBP

Current Account

-11.2B

-8.9B

-7.2B

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

GBP

Final GDP q/q

-0.3%

-0.3%

-0.3%

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

-29

-30

-29

EUR

German Retail Sales m/m

-0.3%

0.1%

-0.2%

Jun 29

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

0.4%

0.0%

0.7%

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

1.16

0.87

0.80

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.9%

2.4%

2.5%

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

2.4%

2.4%

2.4%

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov17, 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009.

 

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 2

3:15am

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

0.9%

0.1%

3:30am

CHF

SVME PMI

44.6

45.4

3:45am

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

44.6

44.8

4:30am

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

46.7

45.9

5:00am

EUR

Unemployment Rate

11.1%

11.0%

10:00am

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

52.1

53.5

Jul 3

3rd-6th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

-0.3%

0.5%

4:30am

GBP

Construction PMI

53.1

54.4

4:30am

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

1.1B

1.4B

10:00am

USD

Factory Orders m/m

0.1%

-0.6%

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

4:00am

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

4:30am

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

5:00am

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

6:00am

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

7:00am

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

7:45am

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

8:15am

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

10:00am

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

11:00am

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

3:00am

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

3:15am

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

4:30am

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

6:00am

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

8:30am

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

8:30am

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.