GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

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Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

  • The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
  • High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

 

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD gained on the USD towards the end of the week. The USD lost its momentum throughout the week, as investors turned to gold for their safe haven, leaving the greenback to dip after continued negative data began to worry traders that the US economy was stalled.

Date

Last

Open

High

Low

Change %

Jun 15, 2012

1.5715

1.5552

1.5729

1.5477

1.05%

Jun 14, 2012

1.5552

1.5520

1.5564

1.5473

0.21%

Jun 13, 2012

1.5520

1.5565

1.5598

1.5505

-0.29%

Jun 12, 2012

1.5565

1.5483

1.5591

1.5455

0.53%

Jun 11, 2012

1.5483

1.5534

1.5582

1.5462

-0.34%

 

The continued poor eco reports made it more likely that the FOMC will offer some sort of monetary stimulus.

This week will be more about news flow on the Greek elections. The pound was also able to gain momentum after announcements of a cohesive plan between the UK government and the BoE, to offer additional stimulus, to aid the ailing economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

.Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date

Currency

 Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Jun 12

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

-0.7%

0.0%

0.9%

Jun 13

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

0.1%

-0.3%

USD

PPI m/m

-1.0%

-0.6%

-0.2%

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.2%

-0.1%

-0.2%

Jun 14

CHF

Libor Rate

<0.25%

<0.25%

<0.25%

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

0.2%

0.2%

USD

Unemployment Claims

386K

377K

380K

Jun 15

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

74.1

77.5

79.3

 

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov17, 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jun 18

Day 1

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 19

8:30

GBP

CPI y/y

 

3.0%

 

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

 

-2.4

12:30

USD

Building Permits

 

0.72M

Day 2

ALL

G20 Meetings

   

Jun 20

8:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

 

-13.7K

8:30

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

0-0-9

0-0-9

16:30

USD

FOMC Statement

   

18:00

USD

FOMC Economic Projections

   

18:15

USD

FOMC Press Conference

   

Jun 21

8:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

 

-2.3%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

386K

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

 

4.62M

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

 

-5.8

Jun 22

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

 

106.9

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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