GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis June 18-22, 2012, Forecast

Posted June 16, 2012 19:18 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Introduction: While the ranges are wider (and so should stops be), the lines are rather distinctive, especially towards the borders of the long term wide range. This pair makes for good trades, with the new austerity program implemented in the UK, the GBP is moving more on Fundamentals now.

The interest rate differential between the Bank of England(BoE) and the Federal Reserve
High yield and attractive growth in the UK drives GBP/USD higher

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD gained on the USD towards the end of the week. The USD lost its momentum throughout the week, as investors turned to gold for their safe haven, leaving the greenback to dip after continued negative data began to worry traders that the US economy was stalled.

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Jun 15, 2012	1.5715	1.5552	1.5729	1.5477	1.05%
Jun 14, 2012	1.5552	1.5520	1.5564	1.5473	0.21%
Jun 13, 2012	1.5520	1.5565	1.5598	1.5505	-0.29%
Jun 12, 2012	1.5565	1.5483	1.5591	1.5455	0.53%
Jun 11, 2012	1.5483	1.5534	1.5582	1.5462	-0.34%

The continued poor eco reports made it more likely that the FOMC will offer some sort of monetary stimulus.

This week will be more about news flow on the Greek elections. The pound was also able to gain momentum after announcements of a cohesive plan between the UK government and the BoE, to offer additional stimulus, to aid the ailing economy.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

.Major Economic data for the week of June 11 – 15 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Jun 12	GBP	Manufacturing Production m/m	-0.7%	0.0%	0.9%
Jun 13	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%	0.1%	-0.3%
	USD	PPI m/m	-1.0%	-0.6%	-0.2%
	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.2%	-0.1%	-0.2%
Jun 14	CHF	Libor Rate	<0.25%	<0.25%	<0.25%
	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%
	USD	Unemployment Claims	386K	377K	380K
Jun 15	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	74.1	77.5	79.3

Historical:

Highest: 1.681 USD on Nov17, 2009.

Average: 1.5807 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.3506 USD on Jan 23, 2009

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Jun 18	Day 1	ALL	G20 Meetings
Jun 19	8:30	GBP	CPI y/y		3.0%
	9:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment		-2.4
	12:30	USD	Building Permits		0.72M
	Day 2	ALL	G20 Meetings
Jun 20	8:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-13.7K
	8:30	GBP	MPC Meeting Minutes	0-0-9	0-0-9
	16:30	USD	FOMC Statement
	18:00	USD	FOMC Economic Projections
	18:15	USD	FOMC Press Conference
Jun 21	8:30	GBP	Retail Sales m/m		-2.3%
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims		386K
	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales		4.62M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index		-5.8
Jun 22	8:00	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate		106.9

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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