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GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 2-6, 2016 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Apr 30, 2016, 10:55 UTC

The GBP/USD ended the week on a strong note at 1.4603 gaining 1.39% for the week supported by a weak US dollar and polls showing that the IN vote was

GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis – May 2-6, 2016 – Forecast

The GBP/USD ended the week on a strong note at 1.4603 gaining 1.39% for the week supported by a weak US dollar and polls showing that the IN vote was gaining more and more momentum ahead of the June 23rd referendum. UK GDP was in line with forecasts, while there was a positive reaction to a number of company results including Barclays and GlaxoSmithKline.

CNBC also predicts that Brexit fears are weighing on UK growth:

The UK economy is expected to post a sharp slowdown in growth in the first quarter amid concerns that a forthcoming vote on the country’s membership of the European Union is scaring investors and industry.

Market analysts believe that preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) estimates released on Wednesday morning will show a slowdown in the first quarter to 0.4 percent, down from 0.6 percent in the previous quarter.

Some analysts, such as those from Barclays and Pantheon Macroeconomics, thought the slowdown could be more pronounced, however, to 0.3%.

The anticipated slowdown has been attributed by all analysts to the “increasing EU referendum risk,” as Barclays’ analysts said in a note on Wednesday, and fears of a so-called “Brexit” should U.K. voters elect to leave the EU when a referendum is held on June 23.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

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Major Economic Events for the week:

Time Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
Sunday, May 1, 2016
  CNY Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   50.4 50.2  
Monday, May 2, 2016
      United Kingdom – Early May Bank Holiday
      China – Labor Day
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)     49.7  
    EUR German Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.9 51.9  
    USD ISM Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.5 51.8  
Tuesday, May 3, 2016
    Japan – Constitution Day
    CNY Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   49.9 49.7  
    AUD Interest Rate Decision (May)   2.00% 2.00%  
    GBP Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   51.2 51.0  
Wednesday, May 4, 2016
    Japan – Greenery Day
    NZD Employment Change (QoQ) (Q1)     0.9%  
    GBP Construction PMI (Apr)   54.0 54.2  
    USD ADP Nonfarm Employment Change (Apr)   200K 200K  
    USD ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Apr)   54.6 54.5  
    USD Crude Oil Inventories     1.999M  
Thursday, May 5, 2016
      Japan – Children’s Day
    AUD Retail Sales (MoM) (Mar)   0.3%    
    GBP Services PMI (Apr)   53.5 53.7  
Friday, May 6, 2016
    USD Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr)   200K 215K  
    USD Unemployment Rate (Apr)   5.0% 5.0%  
    CAD Employment Change (Apr)   -1.5K 40.6K  
    CAD Ivey PMI (Apr)     50.1

 

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

Mar 02 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Mar 04

May 04 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

May 04 11:30 Germany Eur 4bn Apr 2021 Bobl

May 04 11:50 France Holds bond auction

May 04 17:20 Sweden Details of bond auction on May 11

May 05 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

May 05 11:00 Austria Holds bond auction

 

 

 

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