Weekly Analysis and Recommendation: The GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.5030 down 1.07% for the week against the strong US dollar. Sterling fell to $1.5032;
The GBP/USD closed Friday at 1.5030 down 1.07% for the week against the strong US dollar. Sterling fell to $1.5032; its lowest in three weeks and down from around $1.5057 before the data was released. It ticked up immediately after the data, but quickly gave up those gains, to drop through support at $1.5050. Some traders were targeting this month’s 7-month low of $1.5027.
The pound earned some relief earlier in the week after Finance Minister George Osborne’s “Autumn Statement”, in which he eased some spending cuts and dropped an unpopular plan to scrap some benefits for low-earners, as well as announcing a higher growth forecast of 2.4 per cent for 2016.
Investors have pushed back their expectations for when the BoE would start to raise rates to the end of 2016 after the bank’s latest Inflation Report this month, when the bank sounded a dovish tone on inflation and warned of the deflationary impact of a strong currency. It also flagged risks to the UK economy from a global slowdown.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.
Major Economic Events for the week:
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Event |
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Consensus |
Previous |
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TUESDAY, DEC 01 |
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JPY |
Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda |
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AUD |
RBA Interest Rate Decision |
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2% |
2% |
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AUD |
RBA Rate Statement |
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EUR |
Unemployment Change (Nov) |
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-5K |
-5K |
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EUR |
Unemployment Rate s.a. (Nov) |
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6.4% |
6.4% |
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WEDNESDAY, DEC 02 |
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AUD |
RBA’s Governor Glenn Stevens |
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EUR |
Consumer Price Index – Core |
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1.1% |
1.1% |
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EUR |
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
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0.2% |
0.1% |
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EUR |
Producer Price Index (MoM) |
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-0.4% |
-0.3% |
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EUR |
Producer Price Index (YoY) (Nov) |
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-3.2% |
-3.1% |
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CAD |
BoC Interest Rate Decision |
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0.5% |
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CAD |
BOC Rate Statement |
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THURSDAY, DEC 03 |
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EUR |
ECB Interest Rate Decision (Dec 3) |
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0.05% |
0.05% |
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EUR |
ECB press conference |
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USD |
Fed’s Yellen testifies |
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FRIDAY, DEC 04 |
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USD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
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5% |
5% |
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USD |
Nonfarm Payrolls (Nov) |
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200K |
271K |
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CAD |
Net Change in Employment (Nov) |
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0.7K |
44.4K |
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CAD |
Unemployment Rate (Nov) |
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7% |
7% |
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Upcoming Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction
Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec
Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions
Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs
Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction
Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction