GBP/USD Weekly Fundamental Analysis October 8-12, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 06, 2012 10:45 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Weekly Analysis and Recommendation:

The GBP/USD closed on Monday at 1.6131 and ended the week at 1.6132 with a bit of activity in between but nothing new and exciting. The BoE held rates and policy as expected and thereby avoided a public statement. The USD rallied slightly on a positive nonfarm payroll report on Friday when unemployment fell to 7.8%

Date	Last	Open	High	Low	Change %
Oct 05, 2012	1.6132	1.6184	1.6217	1.6123	-0.32%
Oct 04, 2012	1.6184	1.6100	1.6202	1.6082	0.52%
Oct 03, 2012	1.6100	1.6129	1.6141	1.6067	-0.19%
Oct 02, 2012	1.6130	1.6131	1.6187	1.6125	-0.01%
Oct 01, 2012	1.6131	1.6122	1.6175	1.6110	0.06%

Last week the IMF once again revised downward growth figures which were weighing on the GBP as the eurozone problems continue to plague the UK. Although on Thursday ECB President Draghi held a news conference and pledged once again to aid the ailing economies and said that the OMT is ready for action.

A lackluster UK economic calendar leaves the British Pound at the mercy of larger market themes. The Eurozone debt crisis remains a major consideration. As a regional alternative to the Euro, the UK currency remains a beneficiary of haven flows at times of elevated sovereign stress, and the week ahead promises plenty of opportunities for another flare-up. At the same time, global slowdown fears remain ever-present. A risk-off move on these grounds stands to weigh on Sterling against havens like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen while driving strength against overtly sentiment-driven commodity bloc currencies, and vice versa.

All eyes initially turn to Luxembourg, where Eurozone finance ministers will gather for a two-day meeting to discuss debt management efforts.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Major Economic Events for the week of October 1-5 actual v. forecast for Euro, GPB, the Franc, and USD

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.9%	4.5%	2.9%
	CHF	SVME PMI	43.6	47.5	46.7
	EUR	Italian Manufacturing PMI	45.70	44.20	43.60
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	42.7	42.6	42.6
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	47.4	47.3	47.3
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	46.1	46.0	46.0
	GBP	Manufacturing PMI	48.4	49.3	49.5
	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	51.5	49.7	49.6
Oct. 02	GBP	Nationwide HPI (MoM)	-0.4%	-0.3%	1.1%
	EUR	Spanish Unemployment Change	79.60K		38.20K
Oct. 03	GBP	Services PMI	52.2	53.1	53.7
	EUR	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.1%	-0.1%	0.1%
	USD	ADP Nonfarm Employment Change	162K	143K	189K
	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Index	55.1	53.2	53.7
Oct. 04	GBP	Halifax House Price Index (MoM)	-0.4%	0.2%	-0.4%
	GBP	Interest Rate Decision	0.50%	0.50%	0.50%
	GBP	BOE QE Total	375B	375B	375B
	EUR	Interest Rate Decision	0.75%	0.75%	0.75%
	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	367K	370K	363K
	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3281K	3271K	3281K
Oct. 05	EUR	GDP (QoQ)	-0.2%	-0.2%	-0.2%
	EUR	German Factory Orders (MoM)	-1.3%	-0.5%	0.3%
	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.0%
	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	114K	113K	142K
	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.4	34.4
	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	104K	130K	97K

Historical: From 2010 to Present

Highest: 1.6747 USD on April 28, 2011.

Average: 1.5751 USD over this period

Lowest: 1.4229 USD on May 20, 2010.

Economic Highlights of the coming week that affect the Euro, GBP, CHF and the USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 08	08:15	CHF	CPI (MoM)	0.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.9%	1.3%
Oct. 09	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-20%	-19%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	2.9%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	-0.6%	3.2%
	09:30	GBP	Trade Balance	-8.5B	-7.2B
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-1.1%	-0.8%
Oct. 11	07:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.0%
	07:45	EUR	French CPI (MoM)		0.7%
Oct. 12	10:00	EUR	Industrial Production (MoM)	-0.5%	0.6%

Upcoming Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Oct 08 09:10 Norway

Oct 08 15:30 Italy

Oct 09 08:30 Holland

Oct 09 09:30 UK

Oct 09 14:30 UK

Oct 09 17:00 US

Oct 10 09:10 Italy

Oct 10 09:10 Sweden

Oct 10 09:30 Germany

Oct 10 09:30 Swiss

Oct 10 14:30 Sweden

Oct 10 17:00 US

Oct 11 09:10 Italy

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden

Oct 11 09:30 UK

Oct 11 15:00 US

Oct 11 17:00 US

Oct 12 09:30 Germany

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles