Gold Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold remains high, trading at 1624.25. Markets have been trying recently to talk down gold but it continues to show an uptrend, even though the longer term forecast is a down trend. Between hopes for stimulus from the PBoC and the FOMC and now possibly the BoE, gold should remain strong.

Also as Chinese data continues to disappoint, risk aversion seems to be returning to the markets and gold seems to be the benefactors.

As odds markets begin to favor the idea of stimulus from the FOMC come September, we will see gold remain strong.

The USD may strengthen against its trading partners but overall the DX is very low, and USD is weak against the JPY, when the Japanese economy is terrible.

So what we see are investors playing it safe.

With the overall market sentiment negative with little action by Mr. Draghi to immediately change the crisis in the EU and Spain, Greece and Italy weighing on the EU and falling deeper into financial doom each day, traders are becoming more and more negative on the whole.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

 

 

Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 10

 

AUD

 

 

 

RBA Monetary Policy Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

25.10B

 

35.10B 

 

31.70B 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.3%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.9% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

-2.4%

 

-1.5% 

 

-3.0% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Employment Change 

-30.4K

 

9.0K 

 

7.3K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

0.1% 

 

-2.4% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.0% 

 

7.2% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

1:30

AUD

NAB Business Confidence

-3

 

1:30

AUD

New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m

-0.6%

 

5:30

EUR

French Prelim GDP q/q

0.0%

 

6:00

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

0.5%

 

6:45

EUR

French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q

0.1%

 

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.3%

 

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-19.6

 

9:00

EUR

Flash GDP q/q

0.0%

 

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

0.6%

 

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

-22.3

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

Aug 15

0:30

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

3.7%

 

1:30

AUD

Wage Price Index q/q

0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

1:00

AUD

MI Inflation Expectations

3.3%

 

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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