Gold Fundamental Analysis August 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1622.05 stuck in a range centered on the 1610 price level. With little eco news and even less news flow today, there wasn’t much market volatility and trading was very thin as gold added 2.40.

Traders are becoming more and more focused on monetary stimulus from the Feds, over the weekend another FOMC member, publically said he would support additional QE at this time.

 As per CFTC data, hedge funds and money managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options by 11 percent to the week ended Aug 07, following a 35 percent surge in previous week. Meanwhile, gold’s premium to platinum rose to a record high as platinum remained under pressure from dull economic prospects.

Traders seemed more bored today then positive or negative.

As the summer wears down and we are in the height of vacation season with schools reopening next week, we should have a fairly quiet week. Towards the end of the week we will see some data from the US, but nothing earth shattering is expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 13

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.6% 

 

1.3% 

  

 

09:00

 

NOK

 

 

 

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

-1.00% 

 

1.70% 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 14

5:30

EUR

French Prelim GDP q/q

0.0%

 

6:00

EUR

German Prelim GDP q/q

0.5%

 

6:45

EUR

French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q

0.1%

 

7:15

CHF

PPI m/m

-0.3%

 

9:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

-19.6

 

9:00

EUR

Flash GDP q/q

0.0%

 

9:00

EUR

Industrial Production m/m

0.6%

 

9:00

EUR

ZEW Economic Sentiment

-22.3

 

12:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

-0.4%

 

12:30

USD

PPI m/m

0.1%

 

12:30

USD

Retail Sales m/m

-0.5%

 

14:00

USD

Business Inventories m/m

0.3%

 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%

 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4

 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B

 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%

 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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