Gold Fundamental Analysis August 14, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 13, 2012 14:56 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1622.05 stuck in a range centered on the 1610 price level. With little eco news and even less news flow today, there wasn’t much market volatility and trading was very thin as gold added 2.40.

Traders are becoming more and more focused on monetary stimulus from the Feds, over the weekend another FOMC member, publically said he would support additional QE at this time.

As per CFTC data, hedge funds and money managers cut their net long positions in gold futures and options by 11 percent to the week ended Aug 07, following a 35 percent surge in previous week. Meanwhile, gold’s premium to platinum rose to a record high as platinum remained under pressure from dull economic prospects.

Traders seemed more bored today then positive or negative.

As the summer wears down and we are in the height of vacation season with schools reopening next week, we should have a fairly quiet week. Towards the end of the week we will see some data from the US, but nothing earth shattering is expected.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

Currency

Importance

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 13

00:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ)

0.3%

0.6%

1.3%

09:00

NOK

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-1.40%

-1.00%

1.70%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 14	5:30	EUR	French Prelim GDP q/q	0.0%
	6:00	EUR	German Prelim GDP q/q	0.5%
	6:45	EUR	French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q	0.1%
	7:15	CHF	PPI m/m	-0.3%
	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-19.6
	9:00	EUR	Flash GDP q/q	0.0%
	9:00	EUR	Industrial Production m/m	0.6%
	9:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-22.3
	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%
	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5%
	14:00	USD	Business Inventories m/m	0.3%
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	7.4
	13:00	USD	TIC Long-Term Purchases	55.0B
	13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.9%
	13:15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.4%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
Aug 16	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations	-42.5
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y	2.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-12.9
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 14 09:10 Greece

Aug 14 09:10 Italy

Aug 14 09:30 Belgium

Aug 14 14:30 UK

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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