Gold Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 14, 2012 16:10 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold slightly changed, but still well above the key level of  $1600 an ounce, as investors’ concerns that weak  economic releases from the top economies could prompt central banks to take fresh stimulus measures. After a cluster of bleak economic releases from China, U.S, Japan and the Euro zone hopes of fresh central bank actions have raised. Fresh economic stimulus could weigh global inflation outlook and drive investors’ attention to gold due to its inflation hedge appeal.  However, investors remain worried on Euro zone crisis with rising bond yields from its member countries and expectations of contracting second quarter GDP. At the same time Italian public debt reached an all time high in June to 2 trillion Euros. The Euro gained in the initial session yesterday but floated lower.

Dollar index extended the weakness but reversed course after US retail sales printed well above forecast.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

  

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 14

00:01

 

GBP

 

  

 

RICS House Price Balance 

-24%

 

-23% 

 

-22% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

  

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.3% 

 

0.9% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

  

 

NAB Business Confidence 

4

 

 

 

-3 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

  

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

06:30

 

EUR

 

  

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.0% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

German GDP (YoY) 

0.5%

 

1.0% 

 

1.7% 

 

07:45

 

EUR

 

  

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

-0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

  

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

  

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.1% 

 

2.1% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

  

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.3% 

 

2.4% 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

  

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.4% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-25.5

 

-19.3 

 

-19.6 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

0.9% 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

  

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-21.2

 

-19.1 

 

-22.3 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.8% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.8%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

PPI (YoY) 

0.5%

 

0.5% 

 

0.7% 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.3% 

 

2.6%

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 15

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%
 

12:30

USD

Core CPI m/m

0.2%
 

12:30

USD

Empire State Manufacturing Index

7.4
 

13:00

USD

TIC Long-Term Purchases

55.0B
 

13:15

USD

Capacity Utilization Rate

78.9%
 

13:15

USD

Industrial Production m/m

0.4%
 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

-42.5
 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%
 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.76M
 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

361K
 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M
 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

-0.4%
 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

10.9B
 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US


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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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