Gold Fundamental Analysis August 17, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1616.05. Most of the trading day was fairly quiet as predicted with little eco news in Europe and little political drama. Gold was trading fairly flat until the US eco releases dashed hopes generated earlier this week. With the exception of building permits which reported higher then expected, unemployment, housing starts and manufacturing all reported well below forecast, once again turning investors to think of Fed stimulus.

Taking cues from yesterday’s upbeat Industrial production numbers from the U.S and optimistic comments by the Chinese premier Wen Jiabo, most of the commodities in traded initially with a mild positive bias but was seen reversing earlier gains on a weak Chinese FDI data. Spot gold and silver were seen marginally up, trading in narrow ranges. Taking sheen off gold today was the report by the World Gold Council which showed Gold imports by India, the world’s largest bullion buyer, falling 56 percent in the second quarter after record prices curtailed jewelry buyers and investors.

Gold demand fell to its lowest level in more than two years in the second quarter, the World Gold Council said, as drop in buying in major consumers India and China outweighed a record quarter for central bank purchases. Overall gold consumption fell 7% to 990 tonnes in the three months to June, its lowest quarterly level since the first three months of 2010.

Dollar index edged up, trading on a greener turf on U.S recovery sign optimism. Base Metal complex in LME was almost flat with Lead and Zinc falling more than 1 percent.

Earlier, Chinese foreign direct investment fell 8.7% in July to the weakest level in almost 2 years, suggesting weakening foreign confidence in the country’s economic prospects.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 16

 

KRW

 

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.3% 

 

3.2% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.8%

 

1.4% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

 

2.4% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.9% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Building Permits 

0.812M

 

0.770M 

 

0.760M 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Foreign Securities Purchases 

-7.89B

 

10.67B 

 

26.11B 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.746M

 

0.757M 

 

0.754M 

  

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Manufacturing Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.40% 

 

-0.40% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

366K

 

365K 

 

364K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3305K

 

3300K 

 

3336K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-7.1

 

-5.0 

 

-12.9 

 

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

 

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.