Gold Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1614.65. Gold prices in the international markets rose around 0.2 percent today mainly on the back of rising speculations that major central banks from China to US might take steps in order to accelerate the waning global economic growth. However, sharp gains were capped due to a stronger dollar.

Improving sentiments in the global markets and risk appetite after German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the European Central Bank’s efforts to deal with the Euro Zone debt crisis helped base metals complex to trade higher on the LME with aluminum and nickel being an exception. Moreover, favorable economic data from the US also supported prices. 

US jobless benefits fell near to a four year low yesterday but weakness in factory orders show a moderate growth. At the same time, as per World Gold Council, global demand for gold fell by 7 percent to its lowest level in more than two years in the second quarter due to drop in purchase by major consumers India and China. Substantial decrease in jewelry and investment demand has been recorded in the period. Indian demand tumbled 38 percent while Chinese demand plunged by 7percent in this period. However purchases by central banks have posted an unexpected rise in the quarter to 157.5 tonnes.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.3% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Current Account 

12.7B

 

11.1B 

 

10.3B 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

10.5B

 

5.4B 

 

6.8B 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

2.0% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6

 

72.4 

 

72.3 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Inflation Expectations 

3.6%

 

 

 

3.0% 

   

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

        Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 21

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12.1B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-6

Aug 22

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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