Gold Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 17, 2012 14:52 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1614.65. Gold prices in the international markets rose around 0.2 percent today mainly on the back of rising speculations that major central banks from China to US might take steps in order to accelerate the waning global economic growth. However, sharp gains were capped due to a stronger dollar.

Improving sentiments in the global markets and risk appetite after German Chancellor Angela Merkel supported the European Central Bank’s efforts to deal with the Euro Zone debt crisis helped base metals complex to trade higher on the LME with aluminum and nickel being an exception. Moreover, favorable economic data from the US also supported prices.

US jobless benefits fell near to a four year low yesterday but weakness in factory orders show a moderate growth. At the same time, as per World Gold Council, global demand for gold fell by 7 percent to its lowest level in more than two years in the second quarter due to drop in purchase by major consumers India and China. Substantial decrease in jewelry and investment demand has been recorded in the period. Indian demand tumbled 38 percent while Chinese demand plunged by 7percent in this period. However purchases by central banks have posted an unexpected rise in the quarter to 157.5 tonnes.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

EUR

German PPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.4%

-0.4%

EUR

German PPI (YoY)

0.9%

1.3%

1.6%

EUR

Current Account

12.7B

11.1B

10.3B

EUR

Trade Balance

10.5B

5.4B

6.8B

CAD

Core CPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.4%

CAD

CPI (MoM)

-0.1%

0.2%

-0.4%

CAD

CPI (YoY)

1.3%

2.0%

1.5%

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

73.6

72.4

72.3

USD

Michigan Inflation Expectations

3.6%

3.0%

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 21	8:30	GBP	Public Sector Net Borrowing	12.1B
	10:00	GBP	CBI Industrial Order Expectations	-6
Aug 22	14:00	USD	Existing Home Sales	4.37M
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
	18:00	USD	FOMC Meeting Minutes

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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