Gold Fundamental Analysis August 22, 2012, Forecast

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold is trading at 1638.65. Gold inched up underpinned by a strong Euro, but investors are cautiously approaching bullion due to prevailing vague global economic conditions. Investors are waiting for more cues of stimulus measures from the central banks to prop up their brittle economy. Meanwhile, improved consumer sentiment figures in the US have reduced the prospects of launching another round of monetary easing programs from the country. Global demand for gold has seen easing in the second quarter of the current financial year due to a drop in consumption by the major consumers India and China. Substantial decrease in jewelry and investment demand has been recorded in the period.

As per CFTC data money managers and hedge funds have cut their net long positions in gold futures and options for the second consecutive period last week while the holdings of SPDR gold trust rose slightly. However investors are keenly watching the outcome of the FOMC meeting minutes and Euro zone leaders meeting this week to track gold’s direction. At the same time, lingering worries in South Africa, the world’s top platinum producer, has boosted platinum prices to a six week high level yesterday.

Comments today from China also helped support markets as it became more obvious that China is preparing to introduce a program of monetary stimulus, the question is now when.

Market sentiments were slightly on the greener side, lifted by optimism over the European Central Bank’s monetary policy action and European leader’s meeting later this week. European shares rose to 13-month high while Euro strengthened against the USD, hitting a two week high. In the commodities segment, bullion, base metals as well as crude oil firmed up in both international and domestic markets. Spot silver appeared glossier than gold, rising to an eight week high and was just shy of testing $29 an ounce. LME base metals rose with copper gaining more than one per cent closely followed by zinc. However, worries over demand from the top consumer China and bleak economic outlook continue to haunt market, limiting gains. The expectation that the Euro Zone leaders may make headway in tackling the region’s debt crisis boosted

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 22, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 21

 

AUD

 

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

NZD

 

 

 

Inflation Expectations (QoQ) 

2.3%

 

 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

HKD

 

 

 

Hong Kong CPI (YoY) 

1.60%

 

3.40% 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-21

 

-8 

 

-6 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Wholesale Sales (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.4% 

 

0.9% 

   

  

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Aug 22

7:00am

CHF

Trade Balance

2.10B

 
 

8:00am

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.8

2.25B

 

8:00am

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

50.1

43.4

Aug 23

8:30am

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

43.6

50.0

 

8:30am

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

50.2

43.0

 

9:00am

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

44.3

50.3

 

9:00am

EUR

Flash Services PMI

47.9

44.0

 

9:30am

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

28.2K

47.9

 

11:00am

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

16

26.3K

 

1:30pm

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

11

 

2:00pm

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

51.3

366K

 

3:00pm

USD

New Home Sales

362K

51.4

 

9:30am

GBP

Revised GDP q/q

-0.5%

350K

 

9:30am

GBP

Prelim Business Investment q/q

2.8%

-0.7%

 

1:30pm

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.5%

1.9%

Aug 24

1:30pm

USD

Durable Goods Orders m/m

2.8%

-1.4%

 

2:00pm

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-10.8

1.3%

           

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

21/8  10:30  Spain

21/8  12:00  EFSF 

22/8  11:30  Germany 

22/8  11:10  Sweden 

23/8  05:45  Japan 

23/8  11:30  UK 

23/8  19:00  US 

27/8  11:30  Germany 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.