Gold Fundamental Analysis August 6, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold drifted lower below $1600 an ounce and is trading at 1591.95, underpinned by a weaker euro. The euro edged lower to a one week low following a volatile session as expectations of immediate stimulus measures faded after the ECB disappointed markets.  At the policy meeting, European Central Bank kept their rates unchanged and did not provide any stimulus measures to boost the debt laden Euro economy.

Disappointment over no fresh bond buying took Spanish bond yields to 7 percent and was seen to test the Euro-era highs. At the same time, investors are digesting the nonfarm payroll report data, which showed that the US created in excess of 163k jobs, when only 100k was forecast. On the other side unemployment inched back up to 8.3%.

Meanwhile, the US CME Group cut the margins for silver, platinum and palladium futures to help boost trading interest.

Sentiments in trade were scattered after Draghi’s comment yesterday failed to help investors gauge the market’s direction.  Also in the limelight is the unemployment rate, which surprised traders adding a notch to increase to 8.3% in July largely due to a slow labor market. After the Fed and ECB disappointed market hopefuls, in spite of some key economic indicators, the week has remained thin on volumes and small price moves.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 03

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

-0.23%

 

-0.10% 

 

-0.90% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

163K

 

100K 

 

64K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.3%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

172K

 

110K 

 

73K 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 6

8:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-29.6

 

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.4%

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 06  09:10  Norway

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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