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Gold Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Dec 1, 2015, 12:38 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Gold gave back most of the gains in the Asian session and is trading at 1068.70 as traders remain bearish ahead of the ECB,

Gold

Gold Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 - Forecast
Gold Fundamental Analysis – December 2, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Gold gave back most of the gains in the Asian session and is trading at 1068.70 as traders remain bearish ahead of the ECB, the NFP and the FOMC over the coming weeks. Inflation remains low and interest rates in the US are pegged to climb leaving gold nowhere to go but down.  Gold prices dove to a new five-year low on Friday, nearing $1,050 per ounce for the first time since February 2010. Prices continue to melt lower as investors flock toward stocks, bonds, or real estate in search of better returns. Meanwhile, speculators are selling short the metal in hopes of being able to buy it back at a profitably lower price in the future.

Some analysts warn that the market can’t seem to stabilize, even after bullish events like Tuesday’s shocking news that Turkey shot down a Russian fighter plane. That event was a spark that could have ignited an already volatile situation in Syria and could have resulted in explosively higher gold prices. Instead, the gold market gave a muted $10 rally, only to be followed by sharply lower prices by the weekend.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is to raise rates for the first time in nine years!  Gold stumbles to a 5-year low and most commodities have hit their lowest price in six years

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole. Please click on the links to find the most recent reports for this asset.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  CNY

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

49.6

49.8

49.8

 

 

  CNY

 

Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

48.6

48.3

48.3

 

 

  AUD

 

Interest Rate Decision (Dec)

2.00%

2.00%

2.00%

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Rate Statement  

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

BoE Gov Carney Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

52.9

52.6

52.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Unemployment Change (Nov)

-13K

-5K

-7K

   

  GBP

 

Manufacturing PMI (Nov)

52.7

53.6

55.2

   

 

gold

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Wednesday, December 2, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  AUD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

 

0.7%

0.2%

 

 

  AUD

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 

2.3%

2.0%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Brainard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  GBP

 

Construction PMI (Nov)

 

58.2

58.8

 

 

  EUR

 

Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)  

 

1.1%

1.1%

 

 

  EUR

 

CPI (YoY) (Nov)  

 

0.2%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

 

190K

182K

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) (Q3)

 

2.2%

1.6%

 

 

  USD

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) (Q3)

 

1.1%

1.4%

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Tarullo Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-1.125M

0.961M

 

 

  USD

 

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Beige Book

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

FOMC Member Williams Speaks 

 

 

 

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Dec 02 11:30 UK Gbp 3.75bn 1.5% Jan 2021 Gilt

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain 1.15% Jul 2020 Bono

Dec 03 10:50 France

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Sek 0.7bn 1%

Dec 07 13:00 Norway Details bond auction on 09 Dec

Dec 07 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTP/CCTeu on 11 Dec

Dec 08 11:30 UK 3.5% 2045 Gilt auction

Dec 08 19:00 US Holds 3-year note auction

Dec 09 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Dec 09 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn Dec 2017 Schatz

Dec 09 19:00 US Holds 10-year note auction

Dec 10 19:00 US Holds 30-year bond auction

Dec 11 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs/CCTeus

 

 

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